8/7/25 No FT Selling, Can Bulls Create FT Buying or No?

1. Monday’s candlestick (Jul 7) was a bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a strong bear entry bar, or if the market would trade slightly lower but close with a long tail below or with a bull body instead. If this is the case, it could indicate the bears are not yet strong.
   
3. The market opened lower with limited follow-through selling followed by sideways to up trading into the close.
   
4. The bulls hope to get a retest of the July 4 high and the Jun 20 high.
   
5. They must continue to create follow-through buying to show they are back in control.
   
6. The bears see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want a lower high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
   
7. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel.
   
8. They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
   
9. Production for July should be around June's level.
   
10. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
11. Export: Up 31% in the first 5 days of July.
    
12. The market is forming a retest of the Jun 20 high and so far, it is a lower high.
    
13. The bulls need to do more to show they are back in control by creating follow-through buying trading above the Jun 20 high for a sustained move higher.
    
14. If the market continues to stall around or below the Jun 20 high, the odds of a double top bear flag (with Jun 20) will increase.
    
15. For tomorrow (Tuesday, Jul 8), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar testing the July 4 high.
    
16. Or will the bears be able to create a strong bear bar closing below Monday's low instead?
    
17. The market continues to exhibit frequent reversals and poor follow-through buying and selling, which are the hallmarks of trading range price action.
    

Andrew