28/5/25 Bulls Need FT Bull Bar Closing Abov 20-day EMA

• Tuesday’s candlestick (27 May) was a bull bar closing near its high.
  
• In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high. If so, the odds of a retest of the 20-day EMA or the 3950 area will increase. Or if the bears would still be able to create more follow-through selling.
  
• The bulls managed to create a strong bull entry bar.
  
• They want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (May 16 and May 22).
  
• They hope to get at least a retest of the 20-day EMA (around 3880). The market tested near today (high 3873).
  
• Next, they need to create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
  
• The bears want a reversal from a double top bear flag (April 25 and May 14) and another smaller double top bear flag (May 14 and May 20).
  
• The problem with the bear's case was that the follow-through selling was limited (May 26).
  
• If the market trades higher, they want the 20-day EMA or the 3950 - 4000 as the resistance area.
  
• They want a reversal from a wedge pattern (with the first two legs being May 14 and May 20).
  
• Exports for the first 25 days seem good, +7%
  
• Production is up marginally so far.
  
• Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems ok.
  
• For tomorrow (Wednesday, 28 May), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA. If so, the odds of a retest of the 3950-4000 area will increase.
  
• Or will the market stall at the 20-day EMA again?
  

Andrew