1/7/25 Tight Trading Range Around 20-Day EMA

1. Monday’s candlestick (Jun 30) was a small inside bull doji.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high or if the market would trade lower, creating a more neutral or slightly bearish June monthly candlestick instead.
   
3. The market gapped down at the open but traded sideways to up. The monthly candlestick closed neutral to slightly bearish.
   
4. The bulls hope the 3980 breakout point area and the 20-day EMA will act as support. So far, the market is holding around this area.
   
5. They hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
6. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
   
7. The bears want the spike up (Jun 20) to form a major lower high (vs April). So far, this is the case.
   
8. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
   
9. They see the last few days as a small pullback and want another strong leg down.
   
10. If the market trades higher, they want the follow-through buying to be weak, with overlapping candlesticks, and long tails above candlesticks. They want the Jun 26 high to be a resistance area, forming a double top bear flag.
    
11. They must create follow-through selling trading below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a resumption of the broad bear channel.
    
12. Production for July should be more or less around June's level.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
14. Export: Up 4% in June. To be seen in July.
    
15. So far, the market has consolidated sideways after the big spike down on Jun 24.
    
16. The small tight trading range formed in the last few days indicates the market is in an area of temporary balance.
    
17. The bulls must create consecutive strong bull bars to increase the odds of a retest of the Jun 20 high.
    
18. If the market remains sideways, the odds of a second leg sideways to down will increase as we move along into July.
    
19. For tomorrow (Tuesday, July 1), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high. Or will any move up lack sustained follow-through buying, stalling below the July 26 high area?
    
20. Or will the bears be able to create another strong leg down in the days ahead instead?
    

Andrew