20/6/25 Buying Above 4150 or Profit Taking?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Jun 19) was a small doji bar.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong breakout above the Jun 17 high with sustained follow-through buying, or if the market would stall around the Jun 17 high area instead.
   
3. The market traded slightly above the Jun 17 high but pulled back lower and traded mostly sideways.
   
4. The bulls got a breakout above the small trading range on Monday.
   
5. They want a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area. During Thursday night session (Jun 19), the market continued higher and is just a few ticks away from 4150.
   
6. The next target for the bulls is the 4200-50 area.
   
7. The bulls have an 8-bar bull microchannel which means persistent buying. The bulls are relatively stronger.
   
8. They must create a strong breakout above the Jun 17 high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move towards the 4200-50 area.
   
9. The bears want the current move to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range.
   
10. So far, the bears have not yet been able to create follow-through selling which indicates the bears are not yet strong.
    
11. They must create consecutive strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
    
12. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
14. Export: Looks strong in the first 20 days +10%
    
15. For tomorrow (Friday, Jun 20), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong breakout above the 4150 with sustained follow-through buying.
    
16. Or will the market stall around the 4150 area and profit-taking activity begins instead?
    
17. Because of the 8-bar bull microchannel, buyers may be below the first pullback.
    

Andrew