15/8/15 Can Bears Create Strong PB or Fail to Do So?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Aug 14) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying or if the market would begin to stall and form a pullback instead.
   
3. The market formed a pullback, which overlaps the prior candlestick.
   
4. The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high. They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
   
5. If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways.
   
6. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 13).
   
7. They want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance.
   
8. They need to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control.
   
9. Production for August may be flat or down.
   
10. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
    
11. Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days.
    
12. The market formed a retest and breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying.
    
13. The market may be in the pullback phase. Traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling or fail to do so.
    
14. For tomorrow (Friday, Aug 15), the bulls want a strong bull bar which will close the weekly candlestick near its high. If this is the case, next week may trade at least a little higher.
    
15. The bears want follow-through selling. They want a strong bear bar, which will cause the weekly candlestick to close with a long tail above, thereby reducing the recent bullish strength.
    

Andrew