3/7/25 Can Bulls Create a Strong Follow-through Bull Bar?

1. Wednesday’s candlestick (Jul 2) was a big bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high, or if the market would trade higher but close with a long tail above or a bear body instead.
   
3. The market formed a big bull bar trading far above the Jun 26 high.
   
4. The bulls hope the 3980 breakout point area and the 20-day EMA will act as support. The market found support around this area.
   
5. They hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
6. They must create follow-through buying following the strong bull bar on Wednesday to show they are back in control.
   
7. The bears want the spike up (Jun 20) to form a major lower high (vs April). So far, this is the case.
   
8. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
   
9. They see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want the follow-through buying to be weak, with overlapping candlesticks, and long tails above candlesticks.
   
10. They want a lower high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
    
11. Production for July should be more or less around June's level.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: To be seen in July.
    
14. The bulls must create consecutive strong bull bars to increase the odds of a retest and breakout above the Jun 20 high.
    
15. For tomorrow (Thursday, Jul 3), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high.
    
16. Or will the market trade higher but close with a long tail above or a bear body instead?
    

Andrew