25/4/25 FCPO Can Bull Get A Strong Retest of The 20-Day EMA?

• Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 24) was an inside bull doji.
  
• In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead.
  
• The market traded in a small range throughout the whole day.
  
• The bears see the current move as a pullback following the climactic selloff and oversold conditions.
  
• They want the 4050-80 area or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.
  
• They want at least a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range (AFTER the pullback).
  
• At the least, they want a small sideways to down leg to retest the April 22 low, even if it only forms a higher low.
  
• The bulls see the recent selloff as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range.
  
• They got a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 22) and a lower low major trend reversal.
  
• They hope to get a 2-legged pullback testing near the 20-day EMA. The move could be underway.
  
• They must continue to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a reversal.
  
• If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22) followed by a second leg sideways to up.
  
• The market is currently forming a sideways to up pullback.
  
• The bulls want a TBTL - Ten Bars, Two Legs pullback. That means they want any pullback to be minor followed by a second leg sideways to up after that.
  
• The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low (AFTER the current pullback), even if it forms a higher low. Will it happen within the next few days?
  
• If the market forms a retest of the April 22 low, traders will see the strength of the selling. If it is strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If it is weak, we may see more profit-taking from the bears moving forward, followed by more sideways to up trading afterwards.
  
• For tomorrow (25/4/25), traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA. So far in the night market, the candlestick is a small bull doji trading slightly higher for the day.
  
• Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA area and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead?
  
• The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range.
  
• That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
  

Andrew