14/7/25 Bulls Need Strong Breakout Above Bear Trend Line

1. Friday’s candlestick (Jul 11) was a bull bar closing slightly below the middle of its range with a long tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears can create a strong bear bar closing near its low, or if the market would continue to trade sideways with limited follow-through selling and trade higher to retest Jul 9 high instead.
   
3. The market traded slightly below Thursday's low but had limited follow-through selling. The market opened higher during the day but the follow-through buying was limited and closed off its high.
   
4. The bulls want another leg up to complete the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jul 3 and Jul 9. They got what they wanted.
   
5. They want a measured move based on the first leg up (July 1 to July 3), which will take the market to around the 4260 area. The market tested the 4235 area but found some sellers above the swing high (Jun 20).
   
6. The bulls need to create a strong breakout above the bear trend line with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
7. The bears want a higher high major trend reversal and a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 11).
   
8. They want a major lower high vs the April high.
   
9. If the market trades higher, they want it to form a double top with the July 11 high.
   
10. They must create sustained follow-through selling to show they are back in control.
    
11. Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: The data is mixed, and the outcome remains to be seen.
    
14. So far, the follow-through selling by the bears is still limited. The buying pressure is stronger.
    
15. For now, traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying, or if the move will start to stall around the bear trend line area.
    
16. For tomorrow (Monday, Jul 14), traders will see if the bulls can create a retest of the July 11 high.
    
17. Or will the market trade sideways and stall around the bear trend line area (4230-50) in the next few days instead?
    

Andrew