29/5/25 - Poor FT & Reverse Below 20-day EMA again?

1. Wednesday’s candlestick (28 May) was a bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA, or if the market would stall at the 20-day EMA again.
   
3. The bulls created a follow-through bull bar closing slightly above the 20-day EMA.
   
4. They want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (May 16 and May 26).
   
5. Since today closed above the 20-day EMA, the bulls need to create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA, something they could not do in the last 2 times (May 15 and May 21).
   
6. If the market trades lower, they want the May 26 low to act as support, forming a wedge bull flag (with the first two legs being the May 16 and May 26 lows).
   
7. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and May 28).
   
8. They want the market to lack follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA like the last 2 times (May 15 and May 21).
   
9. If the market trades higher, they want the 20-day EMA or the 3950 - 4000 as the resistance area.
   
10. Exports for the first 25 days seem good, +7%
    
11. Production is up marginally so far. June's production should be more or less around May's level.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems ok.
    
13. For tomorrow (Thursday, 29 May), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA.
    
14. Or will the market reverse below the 20-day EMA again, like the previous two times (May 15 and May 21)? If so, we may get a retest of the May 26 low in the coming days.
    

Andrew