Recession Onset ETA 2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01

3 天前

Recession Onset ETA 2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01

NOTE: The length can last longer than the estimated onset of the arrival (2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01).

3 天前

註釋

10-Year Treasury ( DGS10 ) should be falling very soon for additional confirmation. Although, it did fall in 2024 two times shortly.

前天

註釋

A professor and former Department of Labor economist is issuing a recession warning.
- February 18, 2025

* Economist Warning Post Source: bsky.app/profile/jrothst.bsky.social/post/3liin7up3ck2z

* News Source: msn.com/en-us/money/economy/economist-warns-that-elon-musk-is-about-to-cause-a-deep-deep-recession/ar-AA1zrMEw

前天

註釋

* Source: [FOMC 2025-01-29 Meeting: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250129.pdf

AI Analysis:
When is the next estimated recession?
Based solely on these January 2025 FOMC minutes, there is no estimated recession explicitly forecasted. The document suggests a slowdown in growth, but the base case scenario is continued expansion, not contraction.

Is it possible to occur within before 2026-01 or before 2027-01?
Yes, it is definitely possible. The minutes highlight significant downside risks that could materialize and lead to a recession. These risks, such as global economic weakness, geopolitical tensions, financial vulnerabilities, and persistent inflation, could certainly trigger an economic downturn within either of those timeframes.

In conclusion:
The January 2025 FOMC minutes do not estimate a recession as the central forecast. They anticipate slower growth and acknowledge significant downside risks that could lead to a recession. Therefore, while a recession before January 2026 or January 2027 is possible based on the risks discussed, it is not presented as the most likely outcome within these specific minutes.

前天

註釋

Cross-AI Analysis (two AI's comparing the summary):
The minutes reflect "cautious optimism" and that a recession within seven months is "not strongly signaled" but remains a "tail risk." This accurately reflects the overall tone of the minutes, which do not project a recession as the most likely scenario but acknowledge sufficient risks to warrant vigilance and a data-dependent approach.

前天

註釋

My Economic Analysis Summary & Rates Forecast:
* We may see a longer timeline of relatively flat rates (best-case-scenario).

Past Historical Example (2001 recession onset):
* From 1994-11 to 2001-02 we had relatively flat rates; mostly near 5.5% (above 4.6%).
(75 months)

Current Example & Forecasted Rates:
* From 2022-12 to 2025-12 we may continue to have relatively flat rates; mostly near 4% (above 4%).
(36 months)

"The Great Recession" (2007 recession onset) looks like the current rates trend as of 2025-02:
* From 2005-11 to 2008-01 we had relatively flat rates; mostly near 4.5% (above 4%).
(26 months)

Conclusion:
* Based on the historical pattern of flat interest rates preceding past recessions, particularly "The Great Recession" (2007 recession onset), the risk of a recession before the end of 2025 has likely increased. This analysis suggests vigilance is warranted and recession risks should not be dismissed. However, this pattern alone is not a definitive prediction, and a comprehensive recession assessment requires monitoring a wider range of economic indicators.?

AI Analysis of Conclusion:
Recession Probability by December 2025: 25–30% (elevated but not decisive).

AI Overall Assessment of your Conclusion and Probability Range:

Your conclusion is well-balanced, cautious, and analytically sound based on the information we have reviewed. The recession probability range of 25-30% by December 2025 is a defensible and reasonable estimate that effectively communicates the key findings of our analysis:

* Recession risk is not negligible.
* Recession risk is elevated due to historical patterns and EFFR behavior.
* Recession is not the most probable outcome at this point.
* Continued monitoring of a wider range of data is crucial.

前天

註釋

Major Economies:

* United States: The Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates.
* United Kingdom: The Bank of England has been cutting rates.
* Euro Area: The European Central Bank has been lowering rates.
* Canada: The Bank of Canada has been reducing rates.

Other Countries:

* Switzerland: The Swiss National Bank has cut rates.
* Singapore: The Monetary Authority of Singapore has recently lowered its interest rate.
* Mexico: Banco de México has been lowering its target interest rate.
* Indonesia: Bank Indonesia has also cut its interest rate.
* Sweden: Sweden has also begun cutting rates.
* China: People's Bank of China (PBOC) has also begun cutting rates.