Recession Onset ETA 2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01

2月20日

Recession Onset ETA 2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01

NOTE: The length can last longer than the estimated onset of the arrival (2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01).

2月20日

註釋

10-Year Treasury ( DGS10 ) should be falling very soon for additional confirmation. Although, it did fall in 2024 two times shortly.

2月20日

註釋

A professor and former Department of Labor economist is issuing a recession warning.
- February 18, 2025

* Economist Warning Post Source: bsky.app/profile/jrothst.bsky.social/post/3liin7up3ck2z

* News Source: msn.com/en-us/money/economy/economist-warns-that-elon-musk-is-about-to-cause-a-deep-deep-recession/ar-AA1zrMEw

2月21日

註釋

* Source: [FOMC 2025-01-29 Meeting: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250129.pdf

AI Analysis:
When is the next estimated recession?
Based solely on these January 2025 FOMC minutes, there is no estimated recession explicitly forecasted. The document suggests a slowdown in growth, but the base case scenario is continued expansion, not contraction.

Is it possible to occur within before 2026-01 or before 2027-01?
Yes, it is definitely possible. The minutes highlight significant downside risks that could materialize and lead to a recession. These risks, such as global economic weakness, geopolitical tensions, financial vulnerabilities, and persistent inflation, could certainly trigger an economic downturn within either of those timeframes.

In conclusion:
The January 2025 FOMC minutes do not estimate a recession as the central forecast. They anticipate slower growth and acknowledge significant downside risks that could lead to a recession. Therefore, while a recession before January 2026 or January 2027 is possible based on the risks discussed, it is not presented as the most likely outcome within these specific minutes.

2月21日

註釋

Cross-AI Analysis (two AI's comparing the summary):
The minutes reflect "cautious optimism" and that a recession within seven months is "not strongly signaled" but remains a "tail risk." This accurately reflects the overall tone of the minutes, which do not project a recession as the most likely scenario but acknowledge sufficient risks to warrant vigilance and a data-dependent approach.

2月21日

註釋

My Economic Analysis Summary & Rates Forecast:
* We may see a longer timeline of relatively flat rates (best-case-scenario).

Past Historical Example (2001 recession onset):
* From 1994-11 to 2001-02 we had relatively flat rates; mostly near 5.5% (above 4.6%).
(75 months)

Current Example & Forecasted Rates:
* From 2022-12 to 2025-12 we may continue to have relatively flat rates; mostly near 4% (above 4%).
(36 months)

"The Great Recession" (2007 recession onset) looks like the current rates trend as of 2025-02:
* From 2005-11 to 2008-01 we had relatively flat rates; mostly near 4.5% (above 4%).
(26 months)

Conclusion:
* Based on the historical pattern of flat interest rates preceding past recessions, particularly "The Great Recession" (2007 recession onset), the risk of a recession before the end of 2025 has likely increased. This analysis suggests vigilance is warranted and recession risks should not be dismissed. However, this pattern alone is not a definitive prediction, and a comprehensive recession assessment requires monitoring a wider range of economic indicators.?

AI Analysis of Conclusion:
Recession Probability by December 2025: 25–30% (elevated but not decisive).

AI Overall Assessment of your Conclusion and Probability Range:

Your conclusion is well-balanced, cautious, and analytically sound based on the information we have reviewed. The recession probability range of 25-30% by December 2025 is a defensible and reasonable estimate that effectively communicates the key findings of our analysis:

* Recession risk is not negligible.
* Recession risk is elevated due to historical patterns and EFFR behavior.
* Recession is not the most probable outcome at this point.
* Continued monitoring of a wider range of data is crucial.

2月22日

註釋

Major Economies:

* United States: The Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates.
* United Kingdom: The Bank of England has been cutting rates.
* Euro Area: The European Central Bank has been lowering rates.
* Canada: The Bank of Canada has been reducing rates.

Other Countries:

* Switzerland: The Swiss National Bank has cut rates.
* Singapore: The Monetary Authority of Singapore has recently lowered its interest rate.
* Mexico: Banco de México has been lowering its target interest rate.
* Indonesia: Bank Indonesia has also cut its interest rate.
* Sweden: Sweden has also begun cutting rates.
* China: People's Bank of China (PBOC) has also begun cutting rates.

2月27日

註釋

Recession Monitors:
(click to play)

2月28日

註釋

This Idea as an Image:

3月5日

註釋

URGENT: WARNING: reducing the deficit or risk a major debt crisis within three years"

“You’re getting closer. My guess would be three years, give or take a year, something like that.”
- Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates

March 3, 2025
Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-03/dalio-warns-of-us-debt-crisis-heart-attack-within-three-years

3月5日

註釋

"Major and immediate action is needed to prevent America from going bankrupt"
-Elon Musk

"The last time a comprehensive review of the federal government was completed in 1984, the budget was $848 billion, national debt was $1.6 trillion & debt to GDP ratio was 38%. The budget is now $7 trillion, the national debt is $35.3 trillion & the debt to GDP ratio is 121.6%."
-DOGE
Jan 17, 2025
Source: x.com/elonmusk/status/1880285306353754575
Source: x.com/DOGE/status/1880282226727817715

3月13日

註釋

More Countries: Rate Cuts:
In addition to the list of countries above on the Feb 21 Note, also the following
* "India cut interest rates for the first time in five years, amid signs that the world’s fastest-growing economy is slowing down. Australia also cut rates while the US held steady."
Source: weforum.org/stories/2025/02/tariffs-dramatically-change-tenor-global-trade-and-other-economic-news-to-know/

3月17日

註釋

Trump launches ‘powerful military action’ against Houthis
The military operation against the Houthi militants could potentially influence oil prices, but the effect would depend on several factors:

Stability in the Region: If the military operation successfully stabilizes the region and ensures safe navigation through critical waterways like the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, it could lead to a decrease in oil prices. A stable environment typically encourages more oil shipments and can alleviate supply concerns.

Market Perception: Oil prices are heavily influenced by market perceptions. If traders believe that the military action will lead to a more secure shipping environment, it could result in lower prices. Conversely, if the operation escalates tensions or leads to further conflict, it could drive prices up.

Supply and Demand Dynamics: The overall supply and demand for oil also play a crucial role. If global demand remains high or if there are other supply disruptions elsewhere, prices may not decrease significantly, even with improved security in the region.

Geopolitical Reactions: The response from other regional players and the potential for retaliatory actions by the Houthis or their allies could also impact oil prices. Increased tensions could lead to higher prices due to fears of supply disruptions.

In summary, while the military operation could have the potential to lower oil prices by improving security and stability in key shipping routes, the actual outcome would depend on a complex interplay of factors, including market reactions and geopolitical developments.

3月19日

註釋

AI Analysis:
Today's meeting highlights that economic activity remains robust—with solid growth and a strong labor market—even as inflation is somewhat elevated. The Committee does acknowledge increased uncertainty and risks to its dual mandate, which means they are monitoring a range of indicators and are prepared to adjust policy if needed. However, there is no direct signal or forecast suggesting that a recession is expected within the timeframe of the next 7 months. The emphasis is on maintaining a balanced approach in light of evolving economic conditions. (longer-flatter rates for now)

Before December 2025

Short-Term Outlook:
Current indicators show steady growth with low unemployment. Most models and expert opinions would likely assign a relatively low probability of a recession in the near term—perhaps in the range of 10–20%.
Context:
This estimate reflects the fact that the economy appears to be expanding, despite inflation being somewhat elevated. The Fed’s cautious approach in maintaining current rates further suggests they see no immediate threat of a downturn.

By December 2027

Longer-Term Outlook:
As we look further ahead, uncertainties increase. Factors such as the cumulative effects of monetary tightening, evolving global economic conditions, and potential shifts in financial markets could raise the risk. In this scenario, some analyses might suggest a moderately higher chance—perhaps in the 30–40% range—of a recession occurring by the end of 2027.
Context:
These figures are very rough and would depend significantly on future economic data and policy decisions. The Fed has signaled that they are prepared to adjust policy if risks emerge, which means the longer-term outlook could change as new information comes in.

Important Caveats

Uncertainty:
Both estimates are speculative. Economic forecasting involves many moving parts, and unexpected shocks or policy shifts could rapidly alter these probabilities.
Model Variability:
Different forecasting models can produce varying estimates. The ranges provided here are meant to illustrate general risk levels rather than precise forecasts.

In summary, while the chance of a recession before December 2025 seems low given current conditions, the risk by December 2027 could be moderately higher—but both estimates come with significant uncertainty.

AI Analysis URL: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20250319a1.pdf

3月19日

註釋

The projections don't point directly to an imminent recession. The median forecasts show modest GDP growth—around 1.7%–1.8% for 2025 through 2027—and low unemployment, suggesting that while growth may be slower than in previous booms, a contraction isn’t the central expectation. However, the projections do reveal considerable uncertainty and downside risks; if conditions were to worsen relative to the median, economic weakness could emerge.

In addition to these indicators, the projections include a forecast for the federal funds rate. The December projections indicate that the median federal funds rate is expected to be about 3.9% in 2025, gradually declining to around 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, with a longer-run target of approximately 3.0%. This gradual easing in the funds rate suggests that monetary policymakers are preparing for a slower economic pace without signaling a sharp downturn.

AI Analysis URL: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdf

3月20日

註釋

For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 19, 2025
Reference: Figure 2. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate:

Reference: Page 4 of URL: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdf

4月8日

註釋

1D Blockchain Silver/Gold Ratio, 2x Gold UGL, 2x Silver AGQ, & Recession Indicators at base.
(click to play; hidden):

4月13日

註釋

Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, discusses recession odds "I think it's over 90%" (Recorded on 2025-04-11)
Video Interview Source: youtube.com/watch?v=_OzfBdodLu4

4月13日

註釋

[ 2022-11-28 ]
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity spread, 50-day SMA inversion "STARTED".

[ 2025-01-21 ]
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity spread, 50-day SMA inversion "ENDED".

(Click to Play; hidden):

4月16日

註釋

Multiple Treasury Inversions on top and EMAs on bottom (two different indicators):
(official recessions are in the area white zones)

4月23日

註釋

"The global economic system under which most countries have operated for the last 80 years is being reset, ushering the world into a new era." - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas - April 22, 2025
Source: imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/04/22/the-global-economy-enters-a-new-era

4月28日

註釋

The next 10-months:
There is a timeline to monitor:

May 2, 2025
* Major U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports begin.
* Immediate uncertainty in supply chains; panic in media ("end-of-supply-chain" narratives).

May–July 2025
* Average-consumption phase (pre-holiday season).
* Shelves remain stocked initially, but shortages begin as Chinese imports slow.
* Healthcare/supplement supplies start depleting; India attempts to fill gaps (limited success).

August 2025
* Importers place orders for holiday season "over-consumption phase" (goods like holiday decor, electronics, gifts).
* Factories have 30 days to produce (deadline: September 2025).

September 2025
* Production completes; goods begin 30-day ocean freight shipping to U.S. (arrival: October 2025).

October 2025
* Holiday imports arrive but face 30-day domestic distribution delays (retail-ready by November 2025).

November 2025
* Holiday shopping season begins (shortages likely due to delayed/slower restocking).
* Shelves empty faster; price hikes on remaining Chinese goods.

4月28日

註釋

CAUTION: THIS IS ONLY A hypothetical (here below)OF WHAT TO WATCH-OUT FOR.
When AI is asked to analyze this next 10-months timeline (above) the AI analysis of a hypothetical the results are the following:

Based on the timeline and dynamics outlined, here’s a projection of what could unfold over the 10 months following the May 2, 2025, U.S. tariff implementation, including risks, adaptations, and cascading effects:
1. Immediate Chaos (May–July 2025)
* Supply Chain Panic: Importers and retailers scramble to secure non-Chinese suppliers (e.g., India, Vietnam, Mexico), but few can match China’s scale, speed, or pricing. Healthcare supplements and electronics face acute shortages.
* Hoarding & Price Gouging: Consumers stockpile essentials (e.g., medications, vitamins), causing sporadic empty shelves. Online resellers exploit scarcity, inflating prices for Chinese-made goods by 200–300%.
* Market Volatility: Stocks of import-dependent U.S. retailers (e.g., Walmart, Amazon) drop 15–20% initially. Gold and Bitcoin surge as "crisis hedges."

2. Holiday Season Crunch (August–December 2025)
* Production Bottlenecks: Factories in alternative countries (e.g., India) hit capacity limits. Orders for holiday goods (toys, electronics) face 60–90-day delays.
* Ocean Freight Gridlock: U.S. ports clog with rushed shipments, mimicking 2021’s backlog. Shipping costs triple as companies pay premiums for "guaranteed" delivery.
* Black Friday Flop: Shelves are 30–40% emptier than 2024. Discounts vanish; retailers like Target and Best Buy ration high-demand items (e.g., PS6 consoles).

3. Post-Holiday Collapse (January–March 2026)
* Under-Consumption Phase: Exhausted inventories and consumer spending fatigue lead to a Q1 2026 recession. GDP contracts 1–2% as retail, manufacturing, and logistics sectors shrink.
* Healthcare Crisis: Hospitals report shortages of Chinese-made equipment (e.g., MRI components, surgical tools). Generic drug prices spike (e.g., insulin, antibiotics).
* Policy Reactions: The U.S. announces subsidies for domestic production (e.g., "Reshore America" tax breaks), but projects take 2–3 years to materialize.

4. Geopolitical & Social Fallout
* China Retaliates: Beijing restricts rare earth mineral exports (critical for U.S. tech), causing semiconductor shortages. Apple delays iPhone 17 launches.
* Domestic Unrest: Small businesses reliant on Chinese imports (e.g., dollar stores, pharmacies) shutter. Unemployment hits 6–7%, sparking protests.
* Investor Flight: The S&P 500 drops 10–15% by March 2026. Safe-haven assets (gold, Swiss francs) outperform. Bitcoin sees wild swings as ETF redemptions spike.

4月30日

註釋

"IMF raises US recession risk as tariffs drive global economic slowdown, and other finance news to know" Published Apr 29, 2025 · Updated Apr 29, 2025
Contents:
1. "IMF warns of US recession as it downgrades the country's growth"
* "In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised its US growth forecast for 2025 to 1.8%, down from 2.7%."
* "IMF’s central forecast suggests the global economy will avoid a recession in 2025, the likelihood of a US recession has climbed to 40%, up from 25% in its previous outlook."
2. "Emerging economies bet on regional trade to mitigate US tariff impact"
3. "More finance news to know"
4. "Read more on Forum Stories"
Source: weforum.org/stories/2025/04/imf-raises-us-recession-risk-and-other-finance-news-to-know/

4月30日

註釋

(Q1 2025 may have seen stockpiling ahead of the new economic war targeting China with new reciprocal tariffs from the US.)

"Imports increased at a 41.3% pace, the yawning gap with exports knocking nearly 5 percentage points from headline GDP."
Source: reuters.com/breakingviews/us-economic-stall-hints-freefall-come-2025-04-30/

7 天前

註釋

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Day0 GDP 2020-01 to 2023-07 Smoothed-Average
Units:
Percent Change from Year Ago,
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Updated: Apr 30, 2025 9:39 AM CDT



Day0 modified GDP 2020-01 to 2023-07 Smoothed-Average & GDP data without modification both compared:

7 天前

註釋

This units (here below) is a better early-indicator compared to the two charts above this note.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Day0 GDP 2020-01 to 2023-07 Smoothed-Average
Units:
Percent Change from Preceding Period,
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Updated: Apr 30, 2025 9:39 AM CDT



Day0 modified GDP 2020-01 to 2023-07 Smoothed-Average & GDP data without modification both compared:

7 天前

註釋

If you found these more advanced modified charts from today's notes update useful and would like to buy me a small cup of Blockchain Gold, you can leave me a small amount here if you wish:

My Cold Storage PAXGUSD address (uses ETH Network) is:
0x14cDd17b179586dAaFe8F229da690e910cFde875

5 天前

註釋

China Observer news reports the data from multiple shipping data providers and lists the sources in the video URL.
* In just 30 days, new data shows that China's exports to the US (US imports from China) are down 50%. Another data provider shows it's down over 60% since early 2025-04.

China Observer news source: youtube.com/watch?v=4QjI1kzt7L8