Let's try this again - FET Short

2024年3月26日

FET has hit a 6.85 just as it did in its last market cycle top. I think that from here there is a chance that it dumps down to the 2.618 area as an initial dump. This is approximately around $1.22.

Once this initial dump takes place, it will likely do a nice bounce back upwards, which typically sets up another dump/short opportunity. This bounce will probably take us back up to around $2.50. So a nice long opportunity within a short opportunity. If this plays out as it did last time, you should be able to short down to around 57 cents. So first short - about 60%, counter trend long - 100%, second short op - 73%. That's IF this plays out the same way as it did last cycle.

If we just continue bullish - my next upward target is $4.52.

2024年3月27日

交易結束：達到停損點

Looks like it is probably headed to 4.52ish. There wasn't any confirmation on this one - but the fib setup compared to the last cycle was intriguing.

2024年3月27日

交易進行

OK - this looks to be a fake-out. Perhaps this short trade idea might actually get validated. The market has been very screwy today so far.

2024年3月27日

交易進行

FET is continuing to trend on the hourly timeframe - so far it looks like it wants to head to 4.52.

2024年3月29日

取消訂單

I posted an idea for the bullish scenario. Targets are 4.54 and 7.28. I've been trading FET on the hourly timeframe

2024年3月31日

交易進行

If this actually ends up playing out, I will crap myself.

2024年4月2日

交易進行

I think that a nice entry may be given around $3.00 if you are looking to short FET. This push up should be pretty telling.

2024年4月4日

交易進行

this bounce should reveal to us if this short opportunity is going to play out or not. This will likely serve as a prime entry if we ultimately get rejected and this is a good short op. Otherwise my eyes are on $4.52 as a next target.

2024年4月8日

交易進行

We had a nice bearish 2 week close. Still feeling strong about this short.

2024年4月8日

註釋

If Bitcoin breaks out of this triangle - and goes and taps around 85k, then I could see this going up to 4.52...where it then may actually top out.

2024年4月9日

註釋

This may actually be a rising wedge on BTC. If we get a bearish week this week, the hanging man on the weekly chart may get confirmation for BTC. That would support this short.

2024年4月10日

交易進行

Ideally, we would like to close this week at $2.77 or below. That would be an excellent bearish case.

2024年4月10日

註釋

this may be what is developing.

2024年4月12日

交易進行

and here we go with our first major spill : )

2024年4月18日

交易進行

So, we actually hit the 3.618 as the first pivot point. This is due to FET doing the big fake-out over the 6.85, which skewed the percentages as seen in the first market cycle top in the last bull run. (2021)

2024年4月23日

交易進行

So, we did get a nice 50% short out of this idea. Now we are gearing back up for another short. I think that the prime entry is coming shortly, around 2.70ish. I will say that the weekly candlesticks do look different than what they did in the cycle that I am comparing this to.

2024年4月24日

交易進行

OK - it looks to be going as expected since the last update. I took on another short position at 2.60 this morning. We seem to be getting rejection from this area. This could of course change, but I think that starting your short positions again within this area is wise. You can always just get stopped out and reposition if it goes against you in the short term.

2024年4月24日

交易進行

OK - so we are probably headed back up into the short zone again short term. I consider the short zone 2.54ish and above.

2024年4月27日

交易進行

I took profits on my short from $2.60 here. I think that we might get another shot at $2.54 and above to take another short position, granted that we don't switch back to bullish.

2024年4月29日

交易進行

Well, I had to add back to my short once I saw that local resistance was holding. So, away she blows.

2024年4月29日

交易進行

Alright, it still looks as if we get another shot at 2.54ish or above.

2024年4月30日

交易進行

Alright, so I am still in the belief that we are going to get another shot at 2.54 or more for yet another short building opportunity.

2024年5月3日

交易進行

Yep, daily chart definitely supports a nice rally. I still strongly expect another shot at 2.54 or more to short again.

2024年5月6日

交易進行

Here we are just shy of the expected 2.54 level. We hit 2.52 early this AM. I am nibbling at shorts again in this area. I'm setting a stop just above the 2.54 area in case we go higher. repositioning is just a part of the game.

2024年5月7日

交易進行

While we are in this area, taking shorts as close to 2.54ish as possible I think is best practice. If we establish support on top of 2.54, then it would obv be time to reposition. This is looking pretty promising as a shorting area as it did before on the 20th-24th of April last month.

2024年5月8日

交易進行

alright, it has been confirmed that the area around 2.54 was a good place to take shorts. Hopefully anyone following this caught it.

2024年5月8日

交易進行

The updated Take profit target zones for this particular idea now that we have more data: TP 1: 1.42 - 1.22 TP 2: .90 - .63

2024年5月15日

交易進行

Sry, I meant to post this update earlier. I was tired last night, though.

We probably get a nice shot at the descending trendline above again - which is going to be close to 2.50 if we hit it. We may overshoot it and hit the 2.54 area or above. Of course, we could always build support on top of 2.54 and potentially have the short opportunities exhausted for now as well.

2024年5月17日

交易進行

OK - it isn't exactly looking promising that we even make it back to the 2.50 area. Hopefully you got into a short on one of the many opportunities within this idea. I'll do my best to provide updates regardless of what happens from here.

2024年5月18日

交易進行

My apologies - I did draw that descending trendline a bit off. We rejected from the descending trendline last night at around 2.40ish. So, things are still looking good for this idea.

2024年5月20日

交易進行

On a 2 week basis, we keep getting bought up when we go below the 2.16 support. There are also a bunch of wicks below 2.16 on a weekly basis, too. The 2 week chart also supports a bearish case as the candle stick bodies have closed below one another up to this point. IMO we are on the brink of a huge drop soon, but there is a fight being put up by the bulls that could reverse this. We should know soon if the lower targets for this idea will be visited or not.

2024年5月22日

交易進行

We did in fact revisit the 2.54 area, lol. We closed with a nice hanging man on the 12 hour, so this area is a great one to attempt another short if you haven't already. What we need is to close below 2.16 and get rejection when trying to go back above it.

2024年5月24日

交易進行

We may have exhausted our shorting opportunities for now. FET looks like it wants to confirm a breakout of this asymmetrical triangle. This is still a bull market - but Bitcoin did print a gravestone doji on the 2 month chart. Tough call at this point. If FET drops below 2.16 and it gets rejected when trying to break back up through it - then this idea may play out to its fullest.

2024年5月31日

交易進行

We just need a weak recovery rally with rejection here, and I think that we can attack these lower targets!

2024年6月4日

交易進行

So far we are getting the condition that I wanted to see: rejection around 2.16. If we want our lower targets to get hit in this idea, then we want this continue to be a weak counter-trend up move...and either get rejected here or not much higher. This is complicated because there is hidden bullish divergence on BTC and alts on the weekly chart. Regardless, the conditions for a big short trade are here as long as we continue to get rejected here.

2024年6月7日

交易進行

Still going good - we got rejected from the 2.16 area that I'd mentioned was a good indication of success. We also lost the intermediate trendline. Now we just need to continue to downtrend/get rejected.

2024年6月11日

交易進行

Congrats to anyone who stuck it out on this idea, as we are inching closer to the first major take profit area! I'd been waiting for us to break structure at 2.16, and we did just that...and we have officially made a lower low now.

2024年6月17日

交易進行

First major profit taking zone has been hit!! Congrats to everyone who stuck with this!

2024年6月20日

交易進行

We went just below the first major take profit zone, and are now rallying from this area. I feel pretty good about having this as the first major take profit zone : ) I think that we do still have a good chance at making the second take profit zone, too.

2024年6月23日

交易進行

I think that FET is probably very close to heading towards my next profit taking zone as we are seeing some nice rejection here. That next profit taking zone is from approx .91-.63 cents.

2024年7月1日

交易進行

we closed the last couple of weeks as a spinning top at the bottom of a downward move, and then an inverted hammer. We may only squeeze the first major take profit target out of this trade. Even if that is the case, this was a great trade none the less!

2024年7月1日

註釋

Well, We DID get the first major take profit zone out of this trade, hah.

2024年7月14日

交易進行

We could be getting the drop down to .90-.63 very soon. We shall see if 1.06 holds.

2024年7月30日

交易進行

It looks like we may have a good shot at hitting the second take profit area of .90-.63 as Bitcoin has been rejected from the 70k area, and looks to test its support in the lower area of its current range.

2024年7月30日

註釋

I could even see a wick as low as .48 cents if we want to be really ambitious.

2024年7月31日

交易進行

The 3D chart is really the biggest chance that this trade has at taking out the second target...otherwise the long trade shall prevail from here on out.

2024年8月4日

交易進行

We did make it under 1.05 and are threatening the second take profit area. I am still not 100% holding my breath on this happening for sure. I have my remaining short position above the last swing high, which is within the first take profit area of 1.20-1.42.

2024年8月5日

交易結束：目標達成

I still have a bit on for closer to .63 cents, but a majority of my position is now closed in profit! Congrats everyone!

2024年8月5日

交易結束：目標達成

SUCCESS!!!! I still have a tad on incase we go for .63, and maybe even .48 with a wick.

2024年8月7日

交易進行

I'll probably be taking my final profits once it is shown how far this short term retrace is going to go.