FISV - Fishing for the Void - $38 target

2022年5月5日

FISV has reached the top of the exponential channel and is taking a breather below the 50 week MA. This tends to mark a market top, as you will notice from the 2000 to 2002 summit. Back then, there wasn't a huge decline, only a 52% drop. Today we are sat at a much higher multiple, after a comparatively long 13-year bull market. FISV's price to earnings ratio has come down in recent months, but further downside is probably the more likely from these heights.

BULLISH CASE - If this stock can reclaim and sustain $110, there is perhaps a bullish twist for another few months of upwards action grinding upwards. That said, this to me looks like it is running out of gas...

BEARISH CASE

• 50 week MA has been lost
  
• We're now closing below the green parabolic channel for the first time since 2014.
  
• Weekly RSI has turned into the bear zone and is showing red
  

Initial target would lend itself towards the mean / midline. Back to $72. A 33% correction.
Extended target is $38-40. Representing a 62% decline from these prices. This would coincide with the 0.786 fib, off it's full 30 year move.
Let's wait it out and see.