$GBIRYY -CPI (YoY)

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The inflation rate in the United Kingdom remained stable at 6.7% in September 2023,
holding at August's 18-month low and defying market expectations of a slight decrease to 6.6%.

Softer price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.1% vs 13.6% in August) and furniture and household goods (3.7% vs 5.1%) were offset by a smaller decline in energy costs (-0.2% vs -3.2%) on the back of a monthly rise in motor fuel costs.

Moreover, the core inflation rate,
which excludes volatile items such as energy and food,
dropped to 6.1%, reaching its lowest point since January but slightly exceeding forecasts of 6%.

Both of these figures have remained significantly above the Bank of England's 2% target,
further emphasizing the mounting inflationary pressures in the country and complicating further the task for policymakers who are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.5% in September, the most substantial increase since May.

source: Office for National Statistics

註釋

(November/2023)

Annual Inflation Rate in the UK () slowed to 3.9% in November 2023,
the lowest since September 2021;
from 4.6% in October and well below forecasts of 4.4%.
The largest downward contribution came from transport (-1.5% vs 0.5%), mainly downward effects from motor fuels and, to a lesser extent, secondhand cars, maintenance and repairs, and air fares. Other downward pressure came from prices for recreation and culture (5.3% vs 6.4%), namely computer games and admission fees to theatres and live music events; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (9.1% vs 10.1%), mostly bread and cereals.
Prices also rose less for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (10.2% vs 11%), clothing and footwear (5.7% vs 6.2%) and health (7.4% vs 8%) and continued to fall for housing and utilities (-3.4% vs -3.5%).
On the other hand, inflation was steady for communication (8.1%), education (4.5%) and restaurants and hotels (7.5%).
Annual core inflation also declined to 5.1%, the lowest since January 2022.

source: Office for National Statistics

註釋

@ 4%
(December 2023 _data)

Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly rose to 4% in December 2023 from a nearly two-year low of 3.9% in November, and above forecasts of 3.8%.
It is the first increase in inflation rate in ten months,
with the biggest upward contribution coming from prices of alcohol and tobacco (12.9% vs 10.2%), mainly due to a rise in tobacco duty and recreation and culture (5.7% vs 5.3%), namely DVDs, computer software, computer games consoles, sports equipment, toys and package holidays.
Inflation also increased for clothing and footwear (6.4% vs 5.7%), furniture and household equipment (2.5% vs 2.3%), and communication (8.5% vs 8.1%).
On the other hand, inflation slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (8% vs 9.2%), driven by milk, cheese and eggs; health (7.3% vs 7.4%); restaurants and hotels (7% vs 7.5%); and transport (-1.1% vs -1.5%).
Compared to the previous month, the CPI went up 0.4%.
Meanwhile, the core CPI rose 0.6%, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 5.1%.

source: Office for National Statistics

註釋

(January/2024)

The United Kingdom's inflation rate was unchanged at 4.0% in January 2024, holding close to November's two-year low and falling below the market expectation of 4.2%. However, it remained double the Bank of England's target of 2.0%. There was a slowdown in the pace of price declines for both housing and utilities (-2.1% vs -3.4% in December), mainly due to gas and electricity charges, and transport (-0.3% vs -1.1%).
On the other hand, inflation slowed sharply for both furniture and household goods (0.4% vs 2.5%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.9% vs 8.0%).
The sole category experiencing an acceleration in inflation was miscellaneous goods and services (4.5% vs 4.3%).
Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, held steady at 5.1%, slightly below the market consensus of 5.2%.

source: Office for National Statistics

註釋

(February/2024)

The United Kingdom's inflation rate dropped to 3.4% year-on-year in February 2024, down from 4% recorded in both January and December and falling below the market expectation of 3.5%.
It was the lowest rate since September 2021,
driven by a slowdown in price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.0% vs 6.9% in January), restaurants and hotels (6.0% vs 7.0%), recreation and culture (5.4% vs 5.7%), and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 4.5%). On the other hand, costs fell at a slower pace for both housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -2.1%) and transport (-0.1% vs -0.3%). The annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, fell to 4.5%, the lowest rate since January 2022 and slightly below the market consensus of 4.6%.

source: Office for National Statistics