Thursday’s bullish engulfing candle and rising risk aversion have GBP/AUD knocking on the door of a bullish breakout, with the pair testing resistance at 2.0627 in early Asian trade on Monday.
Stepping back, GBP/AUD remains within an ascending triangle pattern, bouncing off uptrend support on four separate occasions this month. While convention suggests traders should watch for a topside break, momentum indicators are less convincing—RSI (14) has been diverging from price in recent weeks, while MACD is easing lower despite staying in positive territory.
The conflicting price and momentum signals reinforce the need for a decisive break above 2.0627 before considering bullish setups. A confirmed break and close above the level could open the door for longs targeting 2.0859, the swing high from March 2020, with a stop beneath to protect against reversal.
A failure at 2.0627 could see the setup flipped, with shorts established beneath the level and a stop above for protection. The initial downside target would be uptrend support, currently around 2.0425.
Good luck!
DS
Stepping back, GBP/AUD remains within an ascending triangle pattern, bouncing off uptrend support on four separate occasions this month. While convention suggests traders should watch for a topside break, momentum indicators are less convincing—RSI (14) has been diverging from price in recent weeks, while MACD is easing lower despite staying in positive territory.
The conflicting price and momentum signals reinforce the need for a decisive break above 2.0627 before considering bullish setups. A confirmed break and close above the level could open the door for longs targeting 2.0859, the swing high from March 2020, with a stop beneath to protect against reversal.
A failure at 2.0627 could see the setup flipped, with shorts established beneath the level and a stop above for protection. The initial downside target would be uptrend support, currently around 2.0425.
Good luck!
DS
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