85% of Traders Are Wrong on GBPCAD - I'm Going Short!

📊 COT Analysis

GBP:
Non-Commercials remain net long with 106,282 longs vs 63,425 shorts. However, long positions are decreasing (-4,794) while shorts are slightly increasing (+3,983), suggesting profit-taking or a potential shift in sentiment.

Commercials are strongly net short (35,707 longs vs 87,770 shorts), with a significant reduction in both longs (-24,958) and shorts (-33,457) — a clear reduction in overall exposure.
→ Non-Commercial positioning is still bullish, but momentum is fading.

CAD:
Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (28,154 longs vs 94,487 shorts), but notable changes are taking place: sharp increase in longs (+8,503) and a significant cut in shorts (-18,307), pointing to a possible reversal in sentiment.

Commercials are net long with a rise in both longs (+1,834) and shorts (+31,186), indicating potential hedging as expectations shift.
→ CAD strength is emerging in the COT data, supporting a potential bearish move on GBPCAD.

📈 Seasonality – June/July

GBP tends to perform poorly in June across all historical averages (-0.004 / -0.006). July shows slight positivity but is statistically insignificant.

CAD has a mildly negative June, but July is historically its strongest month (+0.006 / +0.007 on 20Y and 15Y averages).
→ Seasonal bias favors CAD strength in the June–July transition.

🧠 Retail Sentiment

Retail traders are 85% long on GBPCAD, a strong contrarian signal.
→ Such imbalance increases the odds of a correction or reversal to the downside.
→ Confirms short bias.

📉 Price Action & RSI

Price surged into strong resistance at 1.8779 (triple top area).

Current daily rejection + RSI in overbought territory suggest a potential swing high forming.

Natural downside target: 1.8400–1.8450 (prior structure and base of the move).

→ Ideal short setup from resistance with confirmation via bearish price action.