英鎊 / 瑞士法郎
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GBP/CHF Headed to 1.10 – But Bulls Might Regret It

165
📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (D1)
Key demand zone tested with bullish reaction:
Price reacted strongly around the 1.0790–1.0840 structural demand area, previously the origin of a significant bullish impulse. The latest daily candle closed above the previous swing low, suggesting a potential technical rebound.

Immediate target:
The 1.0980–1.1010 zone, aligning with:
A clear supply area
RSI bouncing from oversold territory
A visible imbalance left unfilled

Technical bias: Short-term LONG to fill the imbalance before a potential institutional-driven short setup at supply.

2. Retail Sentiment
86% of traders are LONG, with an average entry of 1.0997

Only 14% are SHORT, with lower volume and better pricing

Current price: 1.0833, meaning most long traders are in drawdown

Contrarian view:
The heavy long positioning creates a liquidity pool between 1.0990–1.1010, making that zone highly attractive for institutional distribution and liquidation of retail longs, especially if accompanied by a structural shift.

🎯 Operational impact:
Supports a technical long to 1.10, but high risk of reversal once that level is reached.

3. COT Report
GBP (British Pound – CME)

Non-commercials:
Long: -6,434 → massive unwind of bullish exposure
Short: +2,028 → rising bearish bets
Net positioning is increasingly bearish

Commercials:
Long: +7,459 → increasing coverage against GBP weakness
Short: -569 → slight reduction
Positioning is mixed, but commercials are taking defensive long positions

GBP interpretation:
Bearish pressure rising from institutional speculators, despite some commercial support.

CHF (Swiss Franc – CME)
Non-commercials:
Long: +327
Short: +1,215
Net positioning still heavily short, but shorts increasing again

Commercials:
Long: +1,909
Short: +307
Commercials are accumulating long CHF positions (bullish sign)

CHF interpretation:
Divergence between commercials (bullish CHF) and speculators (still short) → shift may be underway.

4. July Seasonality

GBP:
Historically strong in July, especially the last 2 years (+3.5%)
Positive tendency across 10y/15y/20y averages

CHF:
Also seasonally positive in July, but underperforms GBP across most timeframes (except 2Y where CHF is also strong)

Operational impact:
Favors short-term bullish GBP/CHF bias, supported by seasonal momentum.

✅ Final Outlook
Current short-term bias is bullish, driven by:
Clear technical rebound
Visible imbalance toward 1.10
Seasonal divergence in favor of GBP
However, excessive retail long positioning + COT speculative pressure on GBP suggest this rally could be a distribution phase, offering an optimal short opportunity at 1.10.

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