GBPJPY Large Reversal Pattern [Elliott Wave]

Executive Summary:

• GBPJPY shaping a diagonal pattern.
  
• Large bearish reversal could push down to 184.
  
• Above 202.40 voids the pattern as labeled.
  

I typically don't conduct Elliott wave analysis on cross pairs simply because they are the children of the two main currencies involved. GBPJPY is the child of GBPUSD and USDJPY.

With that said, I still scroll through charts looking for compelling patterns and GBPJPY caught my attention.

First, it's knocking on the door of 200...a nice round number.

Secondly, the rally from 184 in April to now appears to be a very mature Elliott wave ending diagonal pattern.

Diagonals shape in 5 waves. Remember, wave 3 cannot be the shortest of waves 1,3,5. Since wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, that means wave 5 cannot be longer than wave 3.

So we simply measure out wave 3 and apply it to the end of wave 4, and, voila, we have a maximum target for wave 5 at 202.40.

That maximum target doesn't mean GBPJPY has to go that high, but this market is ripe for a large bearish turn. If GBPJPY does push above 202.40, then my wave labeling is incorrect.

Ending diagonals tend to be fully retraced which implies a decline back to 184...1500 pips from today's price.

GBJPY may dance around in the 199 handle for a day or two.

A break below 199 could be an early warning signal of the bearish reversal. A break below the blue support trend line helps confirm the pattern.

If this bearish reversal takes hold, then GBPUSD or USDJPY likely experiences a large decline too.