GBP/USD Price Rejection at Key Resistance Bearish Setup Forming

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⚙ Chart Context:

Pair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 45 minutes
Current Price: ~1.3640
Date: June 25, 2025
Chart Type: Price action with supply/demand zones and bearish projection


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🔍 Price Action Analysis

🔴 Key Resistance Zone (~1.3640 – 1.3650)

Triple rejection is clearly marked with red arrows. This forms a strong horizontal resistance, now tested for the third time.

The price has stalled just below this zone again, forming a tight consolidation (yellow box).

Historically, price has sold off from this level after each touch — increasing the likelihood of another rejection.



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🟩 Support Zones

1. Minor support (~1.3580 – 1.3590): Mid-zone that previously acted as support/resistance. Price may pause here on the way down.


2. Primary target/support (~1.3500 – 1.3520): Clean demand area, shown in green at the bottom, and marked "Target" with a dashed arrow. It lines up with previous accumulation.




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🧠 Market Structure

Bullish momentum led the price back to the resistance zone, but the current consolidation suggests momentum weakening.

This structure is commonly interpreted as a “lower high” forming under key resistance — a bearish signal.

Potential head and shoulders forming, with the current consolidation acting as the right shoulder.



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🔄 Scenarios

✅ Bearish Scenario (Favored)

If price rejects the resistance and breaks below the yellow consolidation, expect:

Quick move to ~1.3590

Potential full extension to 1.3500–1.3520 target


Entry: Break/retest of yellow box bottom (~1.3610–1.3620)

Stop-loss: Above 1.3650 resistance

Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5 or better


❌ Invalidation (Bullish Breakout)

If price breaks and closes above 1.3650 with momentum:

Expect stop hunts/liquidity grabs

Could open path toward 1.3700 or higher

Would signal shift in structure, invalidating the bearish setup

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