GBPUSD near bottom? GU at strong support, maybe one more dip

2018年12月11日

GU is at a very strong support zone.
Even though it broke below the psychologial 1.25000, there is much fib support here.

Of course, if PM May loses power, GU will take a strong dip.
BUT, that may actually be GOOD for the Pound going forward, if the market imagines a more capable PM.

I expect some bounce right now, maybe just a dead cat.
If this support breaks, I think it can only a little lower before recovering.

Background:
I am a Dollar Bull and Pound Bear, and will remain so until BOE starts talking about rate hikes or PM May starts presenting a positive and plausible Brexit scenario.

My GU adventure started with a search for top of uptrend around Sept 20th

Then came the big drop, which I caught most of. I started looking for bounces to short

Next I was looking for 1.2700 as a bottom which was hit and bounced hard

After taking some longs on the bounce, I was looking for shorts again:

Rode it down to 1.283xx and then good Brexit news made it bull, which I caught one leg of

Since then it has been all downhill for course. Now I am looking for a bounce at strong suport to short again

2018年12月12日

註釋

Some news brought a bounce notice the relevance of the FIB zone, not the round figure of 1.2500 that formed the support.

2018年12月12日

註釋

Bounce turned out quite strong PM May won the no-confidence vote, but imo it was a not a good showing. Her margin of victory was not impressive, with almost 40% of her OWN party voting her down. I have closed longs for now, will observe over the next day or so.