Gold Futures - Bullish Flag might be forming cup-and-handle

2021年1月22日

Note that the time horizon for long is months and years.
Weeks or even months, gold could be bearish as it forms this handle.

This is monthly chart of Gold Futures forming what might be a cup-n-handle pattern through a bull flag (bullish flag) in the daily or weekly chart.

If this is indeed a cup and handle then that's a lot of upside (though will take years or decades).
The "safer" long-term trade might be to wait for the handle to fully form, then higher-high and higher-lows before taking advantage of the cup-n-handle.
Of course, it's possible it might not happen.

The challenge short and medium-term is how long would the bullish flag last before it breaks out.
While flag is playing out, it's "safer" to be in the bearish side of the trade.
Except that when it breaks out of the flag and your on bearish side, that will be painful.

That's why even if at high-level you have the right pattern, how you execute (based on the timeframe) could still get your into trouble.

I guess we will revisit in a few years.

2021年3月29日

交易進行

still at play. might be due for a short-term countertrend (long) inside the flag but handle might still take more time

2021年5月4日

註釋

depending on which horizon (or which accounts)
this is what i am doing
- long-term - some entry here but consider the possibility of better entry closer to 1600
- mid-term - entry with tight stop at 1680 targeting some profit taking at 1850 but if that's the breakout of the channel then wait for retest of 1780 then re-enter and that somehow becomes the stop level

2021年5月8日

註釋

will the flag continue or off to the races?

1680 was a key level but so is 1600 - so maybe one more?
past 2 month candles seems strong so we might need to 1600 again

would be careful though - cup and handles are continuation (in this case upward) but if that fails to materialize then it will be a strong drop (on the other direction)

i am long term bullish but watching stops for shorter term trades

2021年5月14日

註釋

top of the flag - one (or few more) leg down? or would we see a breakout soon?

not paying too much attention to fundamentals but there are some indicators it might not be the time for gold yet
but price is the one that matters so breaking out is definitely on the table

would be much stronger if it consolidates a little bit more so we'll see

2021年6月12日

交易進行

Broke out of the flag and retested
but have not confirmed the retest yet
and seems too small so wouldn't be too aggressive here (but bullish trade still active)

2021年6月18日

註釋

even if 1780 is broken, the cup and handle is still in tact
if i am not mistaken it gets invalidated only 1520 levels are broken
that's a long way to go from here - so know your horizon for sure

2021年8月9日

註釋

very drastic retest of key 1680 level
and quickly rebound but yet to see if that holds or continues lower
a strong challenged for a strong level

could that be the shaking off of weak hands and that forms a handle?

happened on off-hours, could that mean anything? if bulls wanted to shake off bears wouldn't they want to do that during higher volume trading?

still intact but the best (or conservative) entry for cup-and-handle is breakout of the handle so if trend following then we wait, if accumulating then getting some here would not be such a bad idea.

2021年9月3日

交易進行

popping it's head outside of that channel and considering the long tail in the Aug 2nd candle, this could be early phases of a possible breakout - still staying small but optimistic

2021年10月20日

註釋

still active (this is a long timeframe - this is monthly chart)

that timeframe is important to note
because there is opportunity risk or cost here
capital could be more efficient deployed somewhere (for short or medium-term)

the handle needs to form better (consolidate/sideways)
or a really strong breakout and stays above/around 1900

2022年2月25日

交易進行

Follow through above ~1900 could get it towards ~2800-3000

2022年3月10日

交易進行

I think the handle has been formed in February.

There are 3 possible stop loss levels.
1924 - very tight and vulnerable to retest
1790 - February low
1680 - handle swing low

1680 is a bit far but i believe is the "textbook" stop loss for the formation
and given that this is month chart and fairly long time horizon

With that said, the right answer depends on one's risk tolerance and horizon

One strategy is to accumulate physical (bullion in vaults etc)
then use futures to hedge if there is a serious downside risk

Good luck and hope this working out for you and will continue to.
The target here is around 2,800

2022年3月10日

註釋

One very interesting thing for me here is that the February risk is most likely due to geopolitical risk.

However, the cup has already been forming, it feels like it was just waiting for a catalyst. Or maybe this is just reflection of reality and the local bottom around 2014-2015 was anticipating some future events. Too many times (in my years of following markets), price really did lead major events, that is after why technical analysis lives/flourishes. Someone somewhere knows something, way before the masses (us) catches wind of it.