GDX- Miners Reaching Lower?

A break of the inclining support originating from Jan 2016 may trigger some selling pressure as it would complete a Head and Shoulders pattern. This may be an inverse expression to the IHS forming on the DXY. I'm about 70/30 convinced of this right now. The attached link makes a strong dollar case.

The average distance from head to neck results in a projected 24$ target, with the very base support above 22. If this played out similar to other sell-offs, we could expect the downward pressure to reach 24+ and ease before turning between Feb 1st and Apr 19th. This could be an algo/leverage driven flash sale so we might expect equal violence to the upside later in the summer/fall. (15% chance?)

What is more probably more likely is that the chart will bounce in the 28 range before deciding to follow-through to 24 or, consolidate and ultimately resume an up-trend. (85% chance)

Whether this coincides with a broader market decline remains to be seen, though my suspicions tell me that this week (Jan 25th-30th) will be very telling.

註釋

fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/forex-videos/q1-q2-elliott-wave-views-for-the-forex-majors-exclusive-interview-with-jim-martens/

註釋

This coming trading week will be crunch time, opening on the 1st we may hold (with renewed silver interest spilling across), though a wider market decline and strengthening DXY may continue to put downward pressure on the miners. Plan for either eventuality.

註釋

Decisive rejection of what seemed so certain? Looks like a round-the-apex rejection.. Looking up for the GDX. My bias says it is unlikely to fulfill the projected downside. Both scenarios now fully in play