看空

Junior Miners will take some time off soon

已更新

I see a repeat of March 2020 happening but with birdflu (check out my silver miners thread where the fractal looks better).

Within 5 months, miners had a 42% gain, but within that time period there were 2 huge drops and 3 huge gains:

1. $46-$20 (56% loss) in 2 weeks (June-July)
2. $20-$40 (100% gain) in 4 weeks (July-August)
3. $40-$50 (25% gain) in 4 weeks (August-September)
4. $50-$42 (15% loss) in 4 weeks (September-October)
5. $42-$65 (55% gain) in 6 weeks (October-Mid November)

We'll want to target events 1, 2 and 5. OTM puts and calls on , and will be the way to go on this assuming some exogenous event doesn't take down our markets (hack, EMP etc.), and IV is affordable. 1 will be moderately expensive because of hitting the top (unless it grinds slowly sideways dragging IV down with it). 2 could be pretty expensive. 5 should be highly affordable after a slow walk up and down for 2 months.

I will also be keeping a close eye on several junior miners like and one pharmaceutical company (check those threads also)

註釋

Retraced, death cross, and we're about to see the elevator taken down...

註釋

Weird how reality runs on fractals, that history rhymes. Here's the silver miners playing out - which I think is correlated to market flushes.

Here's the movements:
After the top it took 6 weeks to reach a bottom - we're in week 4 (almost 20% loss).
One week up retracement (8% gain) - which'll coincide with the FOMC minutes (I bet they are hawkish to warrant FED doing an about face and cutting in July).
One week huge down candle (30% loss).
One (half) week up retracement (20% gain).
One week (and the previous half) another huge down candle (40% loss).
Last week goes up beginning the week and then down further (40% loss) and bottoms midweek before catapulting - which coincides with the July FOMC rate decision (30% gain).

I'm hoping IV is cheap enough to buy some puts and calls - not sure how much volatility will raise the price towards the bottom so it might be wise to buy some longer dated calls in and then scale in as time goes on and variances work themselves out.

I'm looking to buy in 2 weeks.

I anticipate the market to capsize after the FOMC minutes are released. Buy puts before that (Wednesday July 3rd before a holiday and the fireworks happen - in the market...), then if IV is low, buy calls on EVERYTHING CAUSE IT'S GONNA MOON!!

Newmont doubled within 2 months after rates were cut so I'm gonna buy calls on that miner which is the safest in the world. I anticipate price to be about $20 when this happens. There's a chance Newmont could go up 400% within 1 year.

If IV hasn't gone up too much, I'll rotate into the junior miner Endeavor Silver which also went up 400% in 6 months and 800% in 1 year back in 2020. I will be loading calls on this one as well, hopefully getting in at $1.

註釋