christian.langfors

DAX - MEAN REVERSION SHORT STRATEGY

FX:GER30   德國 DAX 指數
156 0 2
A high risk (~270points stop/loss) mean reversion strategy suggesting we'll go below 12650 / 12700 during next week. Risk:reward is currently quite bad (i.e. risk more than you could gain) and the probability is around 57%.

After a "visual backtest", usually we'd get another push up before we'll pull back in similar events in the past. That is, look for weakness on next push up to enter a short with better risk:reward.

Currently guessing on 12900-ish and a failed re-test of the high before we'll go down.

Furthermore, we have 6 green monthly closes behind us. It is quite seldom we get 7 green-in-a-row. Also "sell-in-June" is seasonality wise a good idea historically.

I'd suggest tightening stops on them longs from now on, nothing climbs forever..
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