4H GER30 DAX Analysis - The two potential moves

2015年1月5日

Excuse the messy analysis - I'm getting used to trading view. The two thickest lines form an ascending wedge, which, as we know, will cause a bullish breakout. However, there is also the potential for a short opportunity if it falls the to the
9680 level.

LONG:

Analysis for the long move is simple, the future price movement will continue to bounce off the trendline which started in late October at around 8980. Since then, price has bounced off this line 4 times; thus confirming it as a trend and most recently on the 2nd Jan at around 9680. From the 12th to the 16th December, price rapidly fell and smashed through the trendline; however, this wasn't ordinary and the market corrected itself swiftly; thus showing once again the strength of the overall trend. I suggest taking out a long position only when price has bounced off the trendline again - the horizontal line stems from recent support/resistance and major support/resistance from May/June/July 2014. Therefore, it's a strong line that will break now that there is a strong trend and it continues to follow the pattern. I advise that the target is 10,020 and no higher - once again, this is due to strong support/resistance from 2014 and the market will be in need of correction. This target, if hit, is a fantastic opportunity to short the index and hold on to around 9250.

SHORT:

In response to the potential long movement, there is the chance of a short movement. There has been two lower highs now from the 5th and 29th December. If the price were to break through the trendline rather than bounce, it could be in for heavy resistance from that line and breakdown to 9680 level where there is a fairly strong amount of support. By this time, the 200 SMA will be above the price and could potentially act as resistance - thus leaving the price with only one way to go. The market is in need of short-term correction, thus a short movement wouldn't be anything out of the ordinary despite the strong ascending wedge that has formed. If price breaches the 9680 level, I suggest that the position is held onto until 9500 where there is strong support from various points throughout 2014. If the market continues to fall them target 2 will be around 9200 to 9250. This is due to the support formed by the market breakout on the 16th December.

Overall my bias in the long-term is to short this index, however, there is the potential for a further rally up which will be profitable for any trader. 4

UPDATE:

Target 1 was easily hit after the trend line failed.