Gold’s weekly outlook: June 05-09

TVC:GOLD   黃金差價合約(美元/盎司)
Gold             posted incremental weekly gains of over $12 which was broadly on account of bad data coming out of America which helped subdue fears over a possible rate hike by the U.S Fed in this month. Week was again a range bound one with the prices traveling between $1259-$1272 until last day when gold             broke through the ever crucial $1272 conclusively which helped in adding more gains. Weekly candle formed is yet again showing bullishness in the metal price for the coming week.

On the chart –

Gold             was clearly in a bullish momentum as the dips towards $1259 were bought on all occasions with the weekly candle forming higher top and higher bottom which is considered to be a very positive sign for the metal. Gold             was expected to break through the $1272 mark and enter into next trading range which it complied to. Circles in the chart denote the ranges gold             can trade in, and the break into the 2nd circle indicates range expansion thus indicating more bullishness for the metal. With shapes favoring bullishness we have a scenario for it –

Gold             saw the dips towards $1259 bought on every occasion which suggested expansion of the range as in earlier week similar thing happened at $1247 levels. Gold             broke through the resistance of $1272 on back of poor U.S data which helped the prices move into the next trading range denoted by the circle on the chart. With gold             into the new trading range, prices might rise higher towards $1288 (A) as gaps in the chart will aid the movement to be brisk. If this level is taken out, prices are expected to move further higher to $1298 (B) which might act as a brief resistance since its a behavioral pattern when prices move towards new highs. If this price point is crossed, gold             may edge higher towards $1307 (C) which is nearly the top of the trading range/circle and good resistance is expected here.

On a side note, there is a bearish scenario available but its very unlikely. Still a bearish trade can be initiated if prices break $1259 (1) which may lead to further downfall towards $1233 (2), and if this support area gives way the prices might find its feet near $1216 (3) which is lowest point of the circle/trading range and a good support for the metal.
Better than above is to trade the range of $1259-$1273 on a bearish note that is to sell under $1273 for the target of $1259 if a trade on bear side is to be taken at all.

Bullish View – Bulls were in charge as the prices created higher top and higher bottom which is extremely positive. Clearly bets on the bullish side were visible since dips to $1259 were bought thrice which was followed by incremental gains as such pattern suggests with a close way higher above $1272. Another aspect which denotes bullishness is the fact gold             closed above the overlapping resistance of $1278 and a clear break into the next trading range. This buying pressure may continue with gold             expected to create new highs in the coming week also confirmed by the pattern formation of triple bottom.

On larger terms, Gold             remains in bullish bias with prices expected to move higher in the trading range of $1270-$1308.

Possible trades are on the bullish side, Gold             can be bought near $1280 for the targets of $1288 and $1298 with a stop loss placed below $1273. Longer term target $1307. If we see a fall in prices it can be bought near $1269-$1273 for the above targets with a stop loss placed below $1259.
Short trades are unlikely, though gold             can be sold under $1259 for targets of $1233 and $1216 with a stop loss placed above $1273. Better trading option on the short side is to trade the range of $1259-$1273, that it selling gold             under $1273 for the target of $1259 with a stop loss placed above $1280.
評論: First long target met at $1288
評論: Dip at $1271 bought
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