https://www.tradingview.com/x/ARW6hvb9/
💡Message Strategy
Gold prices continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, lacking a clear direction. The Federal Reserve is about to announce its June interest rate decision. Although the market generally expects that the interest rate will remain unchanged this time, the key focus lies in the update of the dot plot and Powell's wording in the press conference. The market is currently betting that a rate cut cycle may begin in September, mainly based on a series of weak US economic data released recently. US retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month in May, significantly lower than the market's expectation of -0.7%, while industrial output also unexpectedly shrank by 0.2%, indicating that the US economic momentum has slowed down.
At the same time, the US CPI data in May cooled down across the board, with both the annual rate and the core annual rate lower than expected, which further strengthened the market's expectations for a rate cut in September. Against this background, the US dollar fell from its high on Tuesday, boosting the short-term decline in gold prices.
In terms of geopolitical situation, according to Reuters, the six-day conflict between Israel and Iran showed no signs of cooling down. US President Trump publicly put pressure on Iran and released remarks that he would impose tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry. Coupled with the uncertainty of the trade outlook, the market's risk aversion sentiment has been strengthened, which will help gold maintain a high level.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart, the gold price has been running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands since late May. The Bollinger Bands have gradually converged, suggesting that volatility has decreased and the market is on the eve of a change.
The current gold price is hovering between the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at $3,322.96 and the upper track at $3,446.14, in a typical oscillating pattern.
In terms of MACD indicators, the current bar chart is close to the zero axis, and the DIFF line and the DEA line are in a state of convergence, and no effective golden cross or dead cross is formed, reflecting that the current situation is a typical consolidation market. RSI remains near 56, indicating that the market is not obviously overbought or oversold, and the short-term momentum is neutral.
Based on the above judgment and analysis, it is believed that gold is currently at a critical node. If it breaks through the 3400-line resistance band and is accompanied by a large volume, it will be expected to challenge the high of $3450. On the contrary, if it falls below the $3360 support, it may trigger a short-term adjustment, with the target pointing to the lower track of the Bollinger band at $3200.
At present, the overall adjustment of gold is supported by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the bulls are relatively strong. Long positions are deployed before the decision.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position:3380-3385，SL：3370
First target: 3400, second target: 3450
💡Message Strategy
Gold prices continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, lacking a clear direction. The Federal Reserve is about to announce its June interest rate decision. Although the market generally expects that the interest rate will remain unchanged this time, the key focus lies in the update of the dot plot and Powell's wording in the press conference. The market is currently betting that a rate cut cycle may begin in September, mainly based on a series of weak US economic data released recently. US retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month in May, significantly lower than the market's expectation of -0.7%, while industrial output also unexpectedly shrank by 0.2%, indicating that the US economic momentum has slowed down.
At the same time, the US CPI data in May cooled down across the board, with both the annual rate and the core annual rate lower than expected, which further strengthened the market's expectations for a rate cut in September. Against this background, the US dollar fell from its high on Tuesday, boosting the short-term decline in gold prices.
In terms of geopolitical situation, according to Reuters, the six-day conflict between Israel and Iran showed no signs of cooling down. US President Trump publicly put pressure on Iran and released remarks that he would impose tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry. Coupled with the uncertainty of the trade outlook, the market's risk aversion sentiment has been strengthened, which will help gold maintain a high level.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart, the gold price has been running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands since late May. The Bollinger Bands have gradually converged, suggesting that volatility has decreased and the market is on the eve of a change.
The current gold price is hovering between the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at $3,322.96 and the upper track at $3,446.14, in a typical oscillating pattern.
In terms of MACD indicators, the current bar chart is close to the zero axis, and the DIFF line and the DEA line are in a state of convergence, and no effective golden cross or dead cross is formed, reflecting that the current situation is a typical consolidation market. RSI remains near 56, indicating that the market is not obviously overbought or oversold, and the short-term momentum is neutral.
Based on the above judgment and analysis, it is believed that gold is currently at a critical node. If it breaks through the 3400-line resistance band and is accompanied by a large volume, it will be expected to challenge the high of $3450. On the contrary, if it falls below the $3360 support, it may trigger a short-term adjustment, with the target pointing to the lower track of the Bollinger band at $3200.
At present, the overall adjustment of gold is supported by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the bulls are relatively strong. Long positions are deployed before the decision.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position:3380-3385，SL：3370
First target: 3400, second target: 3450
交易進行
The Fed’s decision may lead gold in a new direction
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Through scientific and rigorous financial analysis and personalized strategy formulation, we help you achieve stable growth of wealth. At the same time, in a complex and changing economic environment, we help you avoid potential risks and protect the saf
相關出版品
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。