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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 14-18

TVC:GOLD   黃金 (US$/OZ)
Gold             soared $30 amidst geopolitical tensions after a week of consolidation as the dollar index             remained near the lows. Gold             completed the pattern of Triple Top when it hit the high of $1297 from where it retreated which was on expected lines. Gold             can now head higher only if its able to cross the triple top pattern on a conclusive basis. With the pattern completed it is expected that gold             might decline towards sub $1270 levels, also the geopolitical tensions looks to calm down after a week of aggressive comments.

On the chart –

Gold             made a brisk move towards its highs of $1297 where it saw selling pressure overtake the demand as seen in earlier weeks. Gold             also completed its move towards Fib’s 100% mark which suggests upside is over. Now $1297 acts as a pivot point for further price action, a move above may allow more upside while a resistance will lead to a correction in the prices. There are 2 scenarios –

1. Gold             broke above the downward trendline with a huge margin indicating positiveness and further upside might be on the cards once $1297 or the triple top pattern is taken down. With such moves anticipated gold             can head higher to $1309 (1) where the metal may find some resistance as seen on longer time frame. Once it crosses this mark it can head even higher to $1321 (2).

2. Gold             completed its technical move on the upside which suggests a correction might be on the cards. The price was unable to close above the upward trendline which suggests gold             can move lower to $1291 (A). Once gold             breaks this mark it can slide to $1278 (B) which is a good support. If this support level is taken out gold             can further move down towards $1267 (C).

Bullish view – Bulls came back with fury after a week of minor consolidation which led the prices to its highs of $1297. Price broke through the downward trendline which suggests further bullishness. Such bullishness is only possible if $1297 is taken out on a conclusive basis. Prices are expected to move towards $1321 once the triple top pattern is broken on the upside. There is very less chance of bullish moves as such technical patterns are strong reversal signals and trades on the long side should be taken with extreme caution.

Bearish view – Bears were stunned by the brisk upmove but came back to life when they did not allow the price to go higher above the $1297 respecting the Triple Top pattern. This resistance did not allow the price to go above the upward trendline which suggests selling at highs. Prices are expected to correct after a 5 week rally from the lows.

On larger terms, Gold             looks neutral with a negative bias. Prices are expected to correct though it can remain sideways unless a direction is created on a conclusive basis.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold             can be bought above $1301 for the targets of $1309 and $1321 with a stop loss placed below $1291. Longer term target $1346.
Gold             can be sold below $1291 for the targets of $1278 and $1267 with a stop loss placed above $1301. Longer term target $1261.
評論: Trade Active
評論: First bear target met at $1278
評論: Second bear target met at $1267
評論: Bullish trade active
評論: All bearish targets met - short trade closed
評論: Bullish trade active
Nice one! It's been a good couple of days for bears so far :D Still looking for 1261?
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vanimator JamesRkaye
@JamesRkaye, yes i still think it can go till1261 as the median of bollinger band stands there
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Thanks
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vanimator Jasmond
@Jasmond, You are welcome!!
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Thanks for the great analysis :)
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vanimator salmanijaz
@salmanijaz, You are welcome!!
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