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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 28-Sept 1

TVC:GOLD   黃金差價合約(美元/盎司)
Gold             saw a steady week with sideways to upward movement in prices as it gained almost $5. Gold             had a single volatile day in the week (Friday) where it swung over $13 on both sides in a matter of minutes due to a crucial Special Fed commentary in which the rate hike possibilities were nullified thus fueling the gold             prices. Gold             had a positive closing which indicates further upside and also a breakout from the crucial circle range.

On the chart –

Gold             closed above crucial $1291 mark. The circle range is finally broken and the pivot now is shifted to $1284 (black dashed line) which is confirmed by the rising black dashed trend line . With such a closing the metal is expected to go higher above the $1300 mark as all elements which have a big impact on the prices have been ruled out for sometime, thus creating a smooth sailing for the metal. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold             prices have regained the bullish charisma as they took support at $1275 in the volatile fall then climbed back higher above $1291 thus indicating buying at lower levels. With such a momentum gold             can climb higher to $1297 where it saw resistance. If the prices breakout above this level gold             can further rise to $1307. If this point is crossed it can surge higher to $1317.

2. There are no short trades available in a bullish market but still if the price breaches the pivot point at $1284 it can fall to $1281 which is again limited as this is now a good support for the metal. Now if this support area is taken out gold             may see further downside to $1271 which is the biggest support and the lower end of the rising channel . If this is broken gold             might slip towards $1257.

Bullish view – Bulls continued their charge as the prices kept on having a steady rise. Bulls must be extremely happy with the close above $1291 which suggests positive mood which will lead the metal to new highs in coming days/weeks. With the Fed ruling out rate hikes in near future the metal has a clear path for an upsurge as it was one of the critiques of the prices. Dovish-ness from Fed accompanied with poor data coming from America can fuel the prices towards $1307 and higher.

There is nothing worth mentioning on the bearish side as the close indicates continued bullishness. Bears can come into play only if $1271 is breached.

On larger terms, Gold             remains in the bullish grip with the prices expected to create fresh highs.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold             can be bought above $1291 for the targets of $1297 and $1307 with a stop loss placed below $1281. Longer term target $1317.
Gold             can be sold under $1281 for the targets of $1271 and $1257 with a stop loss placed above $1291 though such trades seem unlikely in the given situation.
評論: Trade active
評論: First bullish target met at $1297
評論: Second bullish target met at $1307
評論: Trade Active
評論: Third bullish target met at $1317
評論: Trade Active
評論: Continued holding for the next tgt at $1330
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