Bear-Trap armed: Gold ticks 4 / 5 boxes - waiting for the spark

1️⃣ Why the 2020 déjà-vu is EVEN louder

2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally)
TradingView ideas still bearish 💬
> 70 % 60 % bearish

Managed-money net-longs ≈ 115 k
-35 % from Apr. –25 % from peak

+ $741 m PM-ETF inflow Record IN-flows

G/S ratio 87 (< 90) Fell to 95

S&P keeps making highs Ditto

2️⃣ What’s still different

Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % vs -1 % in 2020 → smaller monetary tail-wind.
Gold is already at an infl-adj. record – expect a short & sharp squeeze, not a fresh multi-year super-cycle (yet).

3️⃣ Checklist – updated

Signal Status 18 Jul Comment
———————————————————
Gold DAILY close ≥ $3 200–3 250 YES – $3 354 ✔
G/S ratio < 90 YES – 87 ✔
CFTC net-longs < 150 k YES – ~115 k ✔
ETF flows turn positive. YES – $741 m ✔
Equity stress (VIX > 25 or SPX −5 %) NOT YET – VIX 16.5 ✖

4 / 5 boxes = 99 % primed. One spark missing.

4️⃣ What could light the fuse

Date Potential trigger Why it matters
22 Jul Mega-tech Q2 earnings (NVDA/AMD) Any guidance miss → SPX wobble
30 Jul FOMC Fed holds but sounds dovish USD dump + yield spike risk
1 Aug Trump s “reciprocal” duties Imported-inflation scare → VIX pop
Early Aug. DXY crashes < 96 in < 5 days. Disorderly USD slide = funding stress

Hit ≥ 2 of: DXY < 96, VIX > 25, SPX -5 % or HY-spread +75 bp → final ✔.

Bottom line

The bear-trap thesis aged well: sentiment, positioning, ETFs, and G/S ratio have already clicked bullish.
Only equity-market stress is missing. A fast USD slide or a tariff shock right after a neutral Fed is the most likely detonator.
Stay nimble: Collect premium inside $3 250-3 400 while volatility sleeps – but keep alarms on VIX 25 and DXY 96. One red headline could still launch the squeeze.

Disclaimer: Educational opinion, not investment advice. Futures & CFD trading is risky – do your own research and consult a professional.
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