Gold is sitting right at a critical ascending trendline support—this could be the make-or-break level between wave continuation and deeper retracement.
I have identified this as the potential end of sub-wave 2 of the final Wave 5. This makes the current support zone a high-probability long entry—as long as it holds.
📈 Bullish Scenario: Sub-wave 3 Kickoff
If support holds, we likely begin Wave 3 of 5, which is typically the strongest and fastest-moving wave.
Look for:
Breakout above the previous minor high to confirm impulse.
Increasing momentum / bullish RSI divergence.
Volume confirmation, if available.
Target: A move past recent highs, potentially up toward $2,475–$2,500, depending on wave length projections.
📉 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown to Fib Retracements
If the trendline breaks decisively:
Expect a retest of the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous major swing low to the recent high.
This would align with Wave 2 or a complex correction structure.
Key Support Zones:
0.5 Fib ≈ ~$2,285
0.618 Fib ≈ ~$2,250
Watch for price action behavior and wick rejections in that area—those will give you clues for a potential bullish reversal.
🌐 Fundamental + Intermarket Thoughts
You're thinking very well here with capital rotation logic:
S&P 500 (ES) is likely in a Wave 5: If true, a correction in equities could free up capital and drive risk-off inflows into gold.
Two likely macro triggers:
ES reversal after ATH retest → Hedges start shifting to gold.
Immediate correction in ES → Faster rotation into safe havens like gold.
Watch the DXY and 10Y yields—if they weaken, that could also fuel gold's breakout.
My trading plan:
Long Entry - Price holds support and starts bouncing with strength Below trendline (tight SL ~$2,300) ~$2,475–$2,500
Wait/Short Bias - Trendline breaks cleanly, closes below on 4H/Daily — Look for long setup at $2,285–$2,250 zone
I have identified this as the potential end of sub-wave 2 of the final Wave 5. This makes the current support zone a high-probability long entry—as long as it holds.
📈 Bullish Scenario: Sub-wave 3 Kickoff
If support holds, we likely begin Wave 3 of 5, which is typically the strongest and fastest-moving wave.
Look for:
Breakout above the previous minor high to confirm impulse.
Increasing momentum / bullish RSI divergence.
Volume confirmation, if available.
Target: A move past recent highs, potentially up toward $2,475–$2,500, depending on wave length projections.
📉 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown to Fib Retracements
If the trendline breaks decisively:
Expect a retest of the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous major swing low to the recent high.
This would align with Wave 2 or a complex correction structure.
Key Support Zones:
0.5 Fib ≈ ~$2,285
0.618 Fib ≈ ~$2,250
Watch for price action behavior and wick rejections in that area—those will give you clues for a potential bullish reversal.
🌐 Fundamental + Intermarket Thoughts
You're thinking very well here with capital rotation logic:
S&P 500 (ES) is likely in a Wave 5: If true, a correction in equities could free up capital and drive risk-off inflows into gold.
Two likely macro triggers:
ES reversal after ATH retest → Hedges start shifting to gold.
Immediate correction in ES → Faster rotation into safe havens like gold.
Watch the DXY and 10Y yields—if they weaken, that could also fuel gold's breakout.
My trading plan:
Long Entry - Price holds support and starts bouncing with strength Below trendline (tight SL ~$2,300) ~$2,475–$2,500
Wait/Short Bias - Trendline breaks cleanly, closes below on 4H/Daily — Look for long setup at $2,285–$2,250 zone
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