"Gold at Critical Zone – Parabolic Curve Support or Breakdown?

📈 Gold Parabolic Structure | Base 4 Breakout Setup | $4,000 Target

Sharing my analysis on Gold’s ongoing parabolic trend, which has followed a textbook progression of Base 1 → Base 4 since mid-2022. The price has respected a structural curved trendline, and we are currently in Base 4 consolidation — often the final pause before a blow-off rally.

Current Setup:
Gold is consolidating between $3,200 – $3,400, forming Base 4.

There is weekly bearish divergence, indicating momentum loss, but this is normal in late-stage parabolas.

I expect a retest of the $3,200 zone, near the parabolic curve support, possibly with a fakeout wick below — a common shakeout before the final rally.

Seasonality suggests the first week of July is typically bearish, which aligns with this potential retest.

Trade Plan (If Setup Confirms):
Watch for a strong bullish reversal candle near $3,200 (parabolic curve support).

Entry above the high of that bullish candle.

Stop loss just below the candle’s low.

Target: $4,000+, which aligns with typical blow-off potential (+20–25% from Base 4 breakout).

If Gold breaks and holds above $3,400, it could begin the vertical phase of the move.

Parabolic Move Concept Recap:
Base 1: Accumulation

Base 2: Confirmation

Base 3: Acceleration

Base 4: Final pause before blow-off

After Base 4, price often rallies sharply before forming a major top.

This is a high-reward but high-risk phase. Manage risk and don’t chase late entries once the move begins.

Would love to hear your thoughts and variations on this setup.

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