Aussie Spodumene Miners Potential Bottom - GXY

2020年8月4日

Pricing Strengths Pre & Post COVID Despite Weak Fundamentals Outlook

Potential market bottoms forming for PLS & GXY.
Buy recommendation for low-cost brine and scalable spodumene producers.

Catalysts

• relative performance of brine players such as ORE pre COVID vs. relative strength in spodumene producers after COVID selloff
  
• Higher than expected adoption for EVs from government
  
• GXY's Expansion plans
  
• Potential candidate for hedge against future inflation
  

Considerations

• Large increase in spodumene prices in the near term likely to be curtailed by existing players scaling proaction as soon as prices allow
  
• Current consensus of glut being resolved in lithium market is late 2021-2022
  
• Strategic partners & funding
  
• Short Squeeze/Fundamentals failing to keep up with pricing
  
  
  Entry: Average price of $1.10 on 03/08/2020
  Stop Loss: $0.685
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

2020年9月2日

註釋

Increasing volatility ahead.
Just on a side note: ALB & SQM are approaching key resistance levels.

2020年9月15日

交易進行

Update: Increase stop loss level to $1.0
Capital at risk: 10%

2020年9月16日

註釋

Note: This is not technical or fundamental analysis. It is purely a hypothetical scenario.

With regards to Strategic partners & funding, there is a company called CATL that completed a 2.85 billion USD capital raising earlier this year with plans to vertically integrate into next generation battery/FC production chain.

This means that GXY's and CATL interest may potentially align. CATL may appear as an interested party for GXY's future capital raising.

If I am a sophisticated entity with insider information if things are heading into this direction(which I have no clue), then I would be hoarding shares right now.

2020年9月24日

手動結束交易

Trade closed manually @ 1.165 to lock profit due to today's gap.