One of the best spot of 2022 already here AND commodities update
已更新
First this idea is attached to another idea I've posted last year, you can find it attached to this one and it explain all the pattern we are working here: the Wyckoff Reaccumulation on Copper (HG1!). So you will find here, my entry, my plan for this trade and the update about the related idea. I will also do an update about the materials market, expectations and targets in form of a thread in comment so don't forget to follow the idea to see it.
So first the update of the related idea. I said for the end of the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern that I didn't expect a spring, and my poisition about it is always the same. It will be interesting to see if buying volumes continues to grow, but if it's the case it will be the confirmation of that statement. For the moment, I think we are targeting the resistance area and an SOS to see if we could expect the confirmation of the global pattern and so a bullish continuation. I also said that I will aim for an entry on the retest of the creek. Retest happened exactly on the January 6th for the bottom and I didn't find interesting setup to entry on it, so that why I waited a little to find a setup that could satisfied my interest:
We can see on chart two channel, which have already both gave their target (a is the base support, b is the resistance, c is the target). What interest me here is the reaction on the pullback of (b) resistances of each one. Pullback on (2b) is a perfect V-Turn and pullback on (1b) is an accumulation (I would have preferred if it was an U-Turn but we have an akward double bottom in it).
The structure in volume in this accumulation range is good, we have nice exhaust volume before, buying volumes are bigger than selling volumes (that what we want in a range and also when volumes are impacted by sessions to read them, typically on hourly timeframe) and to finish we have a nice breakout with buying volumes so the setup is completed.
Now in term of plan, in a question of regularity in profitability, I'm looking for a ratio of 2:1 which bring us in the resistance area (which is good with our plan of Wyckoff pattern which expect an SOS around here). Exception here, because of the Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern I don't expect a full target, but only around 40%, then 20% on the first SOS and to finish (if the SOS setup is convincing of course, else it will be out before) last 40% on the 1st objective of the Wyckoff pattern around $5.688 .
It's really important to take multiple profit when you are on long term timeframe. The more you are on market the more there is risk to see change in patterns, in dynamic macroeconomic ... And so, less your probability of success is high. So take profit, fix targets/price and don't be afraid to take profit at the top, don't wait market to fall back.
Else, secure your earnings, you can't lose money on winning trade! That why for my trades, I'm mostly breakeven at 1:1 ratio.
Another time, I invite you to check the first idea I posted, attached to this one.
Now I think we made the turn for copper, if you have questions be free to ask me in comments.
I will now update the idea with other commodities perspectives. I will comment only those where I have identify patterns in my strategy with area to target for entry.
I think metals assets will be one of the key of 2022, most of charts are well oriented to see bullish progression, macro-economically it is also oriented in that way.
So first the update of the related idea. I said for the end of the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern that I didn't expect a spring, and my poisition about it is always the same. It will be interesting to see if buying volumes continues to grow, but if it's the case it will be the confirmation of that statement. For the moment, I think we are targeting the resistance area and an SOS to see if we could expect the confirmation of the global pattern and so a bullish continuation. I also said that I will aim for an entry on the retest of the creek. Retest happened exactly on the January 6th for the bottom and I didn't find interesting setup to entry on it, so that why I waited a little to find a setup that could satisfied my interest:
We can see on chart two channel, which have already both gave their target (a is the base support, b is the resistance, c is the target). What interest me here is the reaction on the pullback of (b) resistances of each one. Pullback on (2b) is a perfect V-Turn and pullback on (1b) is an accumulation (I would have preferred if it was an U-Turn but we have an akward double bottom in it).
The structure in volume in this accumulation range is good, we have nice exhaust volume before, buying volumes are bigger than selling volumes (that what we want in a range and also when volumes are impacted by sessions to read them, typically on hourly timeframe) and to finish we have a nice breakout with buying volumes so the setup is completed.
Now in term of plan, in a question of regularity in profitability, I'm looking for a ratio of 2:1 which bring us in the resistance area (which is good with our plan of Wyckoff pattern which expect an SOS around here). Exception here, because of the Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern I don't expect a full target, but only around 40%, then 20% on the first SOS and to finish (if the SOS setup is convincing of course, else it will be out before) last 40% on the 1st objective of the Wyckoff pattern around $5.688 .
It's really important to take multiple profit when you are on long term timeframe. The more you are on market the more there is risk to see change in patterns, in dynamic macroeconomic ... And so, less your probability of success is high. So take profit, fix targets/price and don't be afraid to take profit at the top, don't wait market to fall back.
Else, secure your earnings, you can't lose money on winning trade! That why for my trades, I'm mostly breakeven at 1:1 ratio.
Another time, I invite you to check the first idea I posted, attached to this one.
Now I think we made the turn for copper, if you have questions be free to ask me in comments.
I will now update the idea with other commodities perspectives. I will comment only those where I have identify patterns in my strategy with area to target for entry.
I think metals assets will be one of the key of 2022, most of charts are well oriented to see bullish progression, macro-economically it is also oriented in that way.
註釋
First a larger view of this Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern updated.SILVER (SI1!)
Configuration of multiples channels, already enter on that asset like you can see. First I target (2a) for profits and depending of the reaction on it two scenario. First we reject and fall back to (2b), if setup happen it will give another opportunity for entry and target (2a)/(1b). In case of breakout of (2a) we should expect also a break of (1b), so this will give an opportunity for entry on pullback of (2a)/(1b). Multiples targets in this second scenario : (2c), (1c) and why not see a retest of ATH in a longer term perspective.
PLATINUM (PL1!)
Simple channel pattern here, so it will be short. We aim for a pullback setup on (1b) to target (1c) if breakout of (1b) is confirmed.
PALLADIUM (PA1!)
Configuration of multiples channels also, already enter on that asset like you can see. First I expect price to contact (2b). After it or we break the potential resistance and go straight to (1b) which is in all case the final target for me. If we have a reaction on (2b), we create a channel and so this give two opportunities. First one to refill on (1a), second one on the pullback on (2b) after a bull breakout of the channel.
GOLD (GC1!) : Disappoint by his structure, I don't like the compression, too much resistances to expect clear targets and so profitability. I see silver overperforming gold if we have a metals bull run.
CRUDE OIL (CL1!) / BRENT (BR1!) : macroeconomically dangerous, price will go at term where OPEP want to see it. If we see new actions of the US we could expect another strong reaction but not really representative of where the value and the interest is. China isn't as many interested in that fight as she could show, I'm not really sure we will see them take position again (personal sentiment). If I had an advice to give : stay away or be on short timeframe on this asset. Too much risk to see price manipulated by news on this public interest asset.
WHEAT (ZW1!) : In a bull channel since a long time already 6 contacts on support, too much for me to expect good probabilities of success to trade in. So I wait to see it break the channel to see on which side the opportunities will be.
SUGAR (SB1!) : There is some setup area where I could be interest in, but it's on very very very long term (years), so I don't think it's really relevant here. On daily timeframe, another Wyckoff reaccumulation, but creek have failed, I missed spring entry and there is too much resistances above our head to expect entry before the SOS/LPS pattern. SOS which could be crittical because of that majors resistances.
COCOA (CC1!) : Same as gold analysis for the structure.
NATURAL GAS (NG1!) / CORN (ZC1!) / SOYBEAN (ZS1!) / COTTON (CT1!) : No relevants structures to target entries area or patterns. Wait for the moment.
交易結束：目標達成
New commodities update soon !
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