Can the Hang Seng cobble together a sympathy bounce?

Whilst the overall trend and sentiment point lower, yesterday’s false break of support could provide a potential bounce for the Hang Seng index.

Despite its downtrend on the daily chart, the HSI produced a strong bullish engulfing candle on the 25th of August which showed strong demand around 19,200 – a level which has held since May (and a similar candle occurred). Whilst it printed a bearish pinbar and then fell back below 20,000, the fact it took 6 days to unwind the gains of the engulfing candle can be seen as a form of strength.

Also note that we saw a false break of the 19,200 support area yesterday despite the negative sentiment, and the day closed with a bullish hammer. Furthermore, the hammer formed and closed above key support and the weekly S1 pivot point, and a bullish divergence formed on the RSI.

The near-term bias remains bullish above yesterday’s low and for a move back to the 20-bar eMA, or weekly pivot point. Whereas a break beneath yesterday’s low (or daily close) assumes its next leg lower has begun and brings the 18,400 region into focus.