6/3/24 - vrockstar - 
HQY - recycling a comment i made post last Q (before i started publishing on everything) b/c the logic remains basically identical and the stock is in the exact same space. what i'd point out for what's changed since, however are two things
- B2B software has gotten slammed, so the fact this has held up is impressive and testament to the sticky holder and good biz performance
- healthcare has also done well (where these guys serve) which could explain the move. the fact that we can forecast better look-thru growth in HC vs. other sectors might explain the stock too.
i'd look to own it in the high 60s (though admit that's a greedy target) where my FCF yield starts to better approximate 5%, which gives me upside in this grower. i think you could make $ buying it in the low 70s, however, and i'll set my alerts in the 73ish region - b/c 4%+ yield + growing is a fair price for a good biz.
gl to the holders.
3/19/24 - 3% FCF yield growing 10% a year seems like good "tech"-ish - but GM of 50% isn't true tech, neither is YoY growth of 15% which is fine but not worth 7x sales (1 bn next year on 7x = the ent value today) and also they've got net debt of 700 mm or about 10% of value of co which is a small -ve (though wb more meaningful if it was not generating cash), seems like a well-oiled "PE" style machine - but not my taste for LT outsized gains, stock is already worked/ at highs. congrats, but pass until this trades meaningfully lower and w/o any hiccup on the ops
HQY - recycling a comment i made post last Q (before i started publishing on everything) b/c the logic remains basically identical and the stock is in the exact same space. what i'd point out for what's changed since, however are two things- B2B software has gotten slammed, so the fact this has held up is impressive and testament to the sticky holder and good biz performance
- healthcare has also done well (where these guys serve) which could explain the move. the fact that we can forecast better look-thru growth in HC vs. other sectors might explain the stock too.
i'd look to own it in the high 60s (though admit that's a greedy target) where my FCF yield starts to better approximate 5%, which gives me upside in this grower. i think you could make $ buying it in the low 70s, however, and i'll set my alerts in the 73ish region - b/c 4%+ yield + growing is a fair price for a good biz.
gl to the holders.
3/19/24 - 3% FCF yield growing 10% a year seems like good "tech"-ish - but GM of 50% isn't true tech, neither is YoY growth of 15% which is fine but not worth 7x sales (1 bn next year on 7x = the ent value today) and also they've got net debt of 700 mm or about 10% of value of co which is a small -ve (though wb more meaningful if it was not generating cash), seems like a well-oiled "PE" style machine - but not my taste for LT outsized gains, stock is already worked/ at highs. congrats, but pass until this trades meaningfully lower and w/o any hiccup on the ops
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