Crazy (5150) about HRL
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$49 has been an important price level since mid-Feb when it provided resistance for an all time high.
The same $49 level provided strong resistance for the rising wedge , except for a couple of fakeouts marking $51.50 as the new all time high.
Both levels have remained important. $49 was retested shortly after the breakout of the rising wedge . $51.50 provided "long but weak" resistance, with a failed breakout in mid-Aug.
Now we're hanging around $49 again - are we going to keep falling or turn back around? I'm bullish for the following reasons:
- $49 was such a strong resistance that I believe it is just shaking traders out on its way to becoming a stronger support level .
- $49 held support with strong bullish hammers on Jul 22 and Sep 17.
- Even though Sep 18 broke below $49, the next trading day had a strong doji tug of war between buyers and sellers, followed by a green day. IMO this signals a fakeout and not an actual break of support.
- TTM and MACD are juuuuust starting to turn around. Not strong enough to be bullish signals on their own, but in context I would say these are encouraging.
I have the following price targets:
- $51.50 (previous resistance)
- $53.00 (approx previous ATH )
- $57.00 ( rising wedge breakout target, assuming we're still in a "retest" phase and not a "breakdown" phase...)
If we close any day this week below the doji body of $48.50 or so, then I will consider this pattern broken and would then expect more downside. If that happens I will look for another bullish reversal in the $45-$47 range.
The same $49 level provided strong resistance for the rising wedge , except for a couple of fakeouts marking $51.50 as the new all time high.
Both levels have remained important. $49 was retested shortly after the breakout of the rising wedge . $51.50 provided "long but weak" resistance, with a failed breakout in mid-Aug.
Now we're hanging around $49 again - are we going to keep falling or turn back around? I'm bullish for the following reasons:
- $49 was such a strong resistance that I believe it is just shaking traders out on its way to becoming a stronger support level .
- $49 held support with strong bullish hammers on Jul 22 and Sep 17.
- Even though Sep 18 broke below $49, the next trading day had a strong doji tug of war between buyers and sellers, followed by a green day. IMO this signals a fakeout and not an actual break of support.
- TTM and MACD are juuuuust starting to turn around. Not strong enough to be bullish signals on their own, but in context I would say these are encouraging.
I have the following price targets:
- $51.50 (previous resistance)
- $53.00 (approx previous ATH )
- $57.00 ( rising wedge breakout target, assuming we're still in a "retest" phase and not a "breakdown" phase...)
If we close any day this week below the doji body of $48.50 or so, then I will consider this pattern broken and would then expect more downside. If that happens I will look for another bullish reversal in the $45-$47 range.
交易進行
Today HRL opened and closed above that $49 support, and the MACD lines had a bullish crossover.Keeping my existing bullish trade open and may add to it if Friday looks good.
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