IBOV Should Find support at 55816

2016年9月15日

After an ending diagonal that behaved like expected (sharp reversal after it), Ibov should find support at 55816. The main reason for this claim is that this support area is historically important. RSI should reach the uptrend support, and bounce up (any break of this level (33%) on daily RSI (14,close) should be interpreted as a first sign that the uptrend is weak). The other important point is that this support (55816) is the level of 38% of retracement for the major rally that was in place after brexit referendum.
The reason i think we should be cautious on trade this situation, is the FED possible rate hike, with next important meeting being at Sep 21. As IBov traders may know, american markets are a main driver of Ibov so i would wait to see what will happen after the meeting to take a more consistence decision. My bias, therefore, is Neutral to Long.

2016年9月22日

註釋

It didn't reach the support mentioned and started to rally after the news of no hiking yesterday. Lets see how this will play out, not safe to make a long here in my opinion. Neutral Bias.

2016年10月3日

註釋

I think IBOV will try to tests the supports showed by skyblue lines below; As I think we are in corrective moment, I could expect a behavior of price similar to what happen on April-June corretion, that was a test followed by a break of 50EMA; I also can see a H&S pattern forming;

2016年10月4日

註釋

Yesterday we had a strong rally all day, almost non stop. It made me think that maybe we wont test lower levels before test the 60000 again. If we have a up opening today, it will blow the blue channel and the H&S, and i will expect it to rally to over 60000. But if we have a bear opening i belive we gonna make lower lows.