So, good time to re-assess. The 'B' is sharp, and could be over, but I didn't think so when I drew this a few hours ago and the downtrend has continued. Can probably use the shadows if you want to be clever (as I have with the arrow) and get it at the floor. But it's rare I meet a clever person who's fucking minted, ya know?
It's really early days so anything could happen really especially with BTC just getting the final OK's from ground control.
I'm probably going long the second it breathes on the 'B' box, I've been watching a lot of my bids miss by a few satoshi recently and that gets really annoying, really quickly.