$IWM: Hi-Prob. Reversal Near 119.97 - Bearish | #russell2000

2016年6月11日

Friends,

Model presents a potential bearish turn in the Russell-2000 ... See following analysis:


PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING MODEL:

Predictive/Forecasting Model offers a high-probability reversal in the vicinity of 119.97, as well as a abysmal bearish target defined today (11 JUN 2016) as TG-Lo = 67.51:


Per above chart, note that a Fibonacci scale approximates this bearish target with a near alignment in the WEEKLY chart at 70.49 versus 67.51 as a Predictive/Forecasting Model target.


FIBONACCI & EW PATTERNING:

Based on the impulse nature that brought price from a low in MAR 2009 to a historical high in JUNE 2015, the ensuing correction is expected to take the form of a simple ZZ or a more complex ZZ. A repeat measurement of the recent ZZ height, projected into the future appears to align closely to the three core Fibonacci retracement levels: 0.386, 0.500 and 0.618, against a Triple-ZZ corrective pattern, expressed as W-X-Y-X-Z in the following WEEKLY chart:


Note in the above chart that, a dashed forecast line would outline the contours of a Head And Shoulder (H&S) pattern. There are two discernible neck heights as h1=h2 (grey) representing the smaller height versus h1 = h2 (BLACK), representing the tallest height.

Classic projection of the smallest height would point to the vicinity of Fibonacci's 0.500 retracement level, whereas a classic projection of the tallest height of the H&S would point to the vicinity of Fibonacci's 0.618:




OVERALL:

Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests imminent bearish entrenchment in the 119.97 vicinity - This is a high-probability event. Price analysis brings up expectation of a correction if Model's top target holds, with bearish target defined at 67.51.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年6月25日

註釋

25 UJUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price turned, now carving new structural lower low; Bearish outlook predominates; Bearish forecast very much in force:



Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年7月12日

註釋

12 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / tech-Note: * * * HIT Target * * *

Price hit target defined this past JUNE 2016:


Note that I just posted a chart of the SPX, where price is expected to rise to significantly higher-highs (forecast was released last SEP 2015, and now just carved a new structural highg, or break-out ... Expecting to hit 2207, ... 2404, and probably reversing near 2667 - See my SPX chart for a historical, frame-by-frame review of the predictive analysis and forecasting, and how well it remained tethered to the forecast line in the chart ... That is what the CROW Code allows students to predict and forecast).

Regarding IWM, it is probable that price will reach higher highs from the 119.97 target, but the Predictive/Forecasting Model ("Model") does NOT see any new historical higher highs.

Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)