IWM short setup in progress

2013年12月26日

It's possible to count 5 waves down and a 3 wave retrace (the 8 wave pattern for entry) on the 5min chart. The problem is it's well short of the normal 618 retrace for a wave 2 (or B). The market can head down now, or this can simply be a complex retracement, in which case we'll see another abc. Going short right here will have the most risk, with the stop at the weekly highs. For me, that means either going short on a new intraday low (and chasing), or waiting for my initial target of 115.66.
Ideally, I want it to hit that 618 target, and then break back through the cloud. Risk management is easiest from there, using cloud resistance as a stop.