The Russell 2000 is down 17% from November highs. According to Bank of America, small caps are not pricing in a recession. Historical small-cap selloffs during recessions have been 35-40%, with forward P/Es dropping about 30%. Earnings are still 38% below their peak. Small caps trade at 14.2x earnings, slightly below the historical average, suggesting they reflect a mild manufacturing slowdown rather than a recession. P/E valuations suggest 9% annualized returns for the Russell 2000 over the next decade, compared to 5% for mid-caps and 1% for large caps.
IWM Technicals:
- Multi-year log trend support.
- Vastly under the yearly average (yellow).
IWM Technicals:
- Multi-year log trend support.
- Vastly under the yearly average (yellow).
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