The JSE Top40 Medium-Term View

1月19日

The JSE Top40 is at a point of a relief rally though the bigger picture is that of a yearly decline. So the expectation is that we can rally while expecting price to be capped by the black trendline, we either make it there or we turn down before reaching this point. Longer term I expect price to trend towards the green support line. Since we must breach this line, My interest will be on the grey horizontal line for support. At the back of my mind is the COVID drop scenario, this is where we get extreme moves downwards representing a continuation of current cycle, otherwise without that scenario we would have a tough quarter one and two of 2025.

We have been in recession like conditions and so far, we could be going through a silent recession whereby conditions point that way but the economic measures do not confirm, does not help that US being leader in market sentiment has had war excursions to affect the indicators as well as constant revisions of the unemployment figures. The coming of Trump might cause war spend to decrease unraveling the dire state of the economy. It is best for traders to be aware of such a scenario and effect on the markets.

2月9日

註釋

The J200 is currently above the black line, a scenario where it closes the month above this line is possible but not envisaged. Perhaps we want to test resistance again before turning down.

2月27日

交易進行

Close of the month is upon us, would be interesting to see where we close, ideal is back below black line. If we close above I would consider that a fake move to trap longs before coming down in March.

3月3日

註釋

When viewing the monthly time frame, the J200 closed below the black line, this removes ambiguity, we are expecting continuation of weakness into yearly low price.