Labor and unemployment - an objective look at the data

2023年11月2日

It's important to look at multiple data points in labor and consumer reporting before drawing conclusions. Be skeptical of any financial or social media presenting a single data point as something to be optimistic or pessimistic about.


The chart covers comparative labor information:

• Job openings (blue) are coming down quickly, which we've heard a lot about. However, we don't hear many talking about how there are still 2MM more job openings than the pre-covid maximum.
  
• Participation (white) is increasing and coming close to recovering to a pre-covid level. Note that we haven't seen labor participation fully recover from the prior two recessions. Job openings (demand) should come down as participation (supply) increases, bringing them close to equilibrium
  
• Unemployment (red) remains near a historic low
  
• USCJC Continuing and initial jobless claims have increased slightly, but are still below recessionary levels. These will increase as more participants compete for positions.
  
• USJO Job offers (green) and USJQ job quits (red) are each coming down, but remain very high. This is also consistent with more participation in the labor force. Permanent job losses (pink) have ticked up, but remain low. This is an important metric to keep an eye on.
  

2023年11月2日

註釋

I mixed up my colors in the first panel:
Job openings are white
Participation is in blue