EW longterm analysis of coffee an shortterm outlook

Most commodities are highly cyclical and don't develop in the usual 5-wave-patterns. In the long run commodity-chars look more like a series of succeeding 3-wave moves.Therefore a longterm EW analysis is difficult in a way makes no sense.

Nevertheless I devoloped a longerm chart for coffee and a shorter term analysis with a seasonal chart as indicator. In the mid and longterm I expect coffee to work lower. The short term is a bit unclear.

What I marked in the hourly chart as wave 4 doesn't look finished and also looks quite steep. On the other hand seasonality calls for a low around february 24. So we might see some fast moves in the following week.

Unfortunately the latest CoT data is not available. The last available report showed a strong build up of long positions by the commercials. This build up preceded the sharp move up from january 24.When analysing commodities it is important to watch the CoT-report. Before entering a trade I would await the latest reports.

Link to the longterm charts.
https://images2.imgbox.com/49/1c/F7zsiiEL_o.png?download=true

https://images2.imgbox.com/3f/28/xT8CMncs_o.png?download=true