Live Cattle Analysis (Revised)

2016年10月9日

A strong case could still be made for a rebound in beef prices. I am a buyer.

I don't pay much attention to many indicators, but I always pay attention to volatility.

2016年10月14日

註釋

long trade still not executed. I am baffled by the weakness in all meats. This is a situation where I become more interested in learning the real fundamentals behind meat prices

2016年10月20日

註釋

Going long tomorrow

2016年11月25日

註釋

Up nearly 10%. First target is 116.40

2017年2月2日

交易結束：目標達成

2017年3月9日

交易進行

I am now short. Stop above 121. A retest of the 102 level is in the cards. Will buy there if we see that level. Will start taking a little profit at the 109 level or the level that corresponds with my traded contract.

Ultimate target is 102 for a short.
Long entry will be at 102.

2017年9月5日

註釋

We seem to be on the verge of successfully retesting the 102 - 100 level. I will go long at 100.90 and will manage aggressively. The VIX shows no signal of reversal which is worrisome for longs. If the 100 level is broken, I think there may be a new norm setting in for livestock prices - somewhere in the 80s (which is likely the absolute floor for this market).

Either way, pay attention now because a big trade is coming.

2017年10月29日

註釋

Missed long entry at 102. Definitely a shame. Big move from the low of 104.