LI - Overshoot Short

2022年6月21日

LI has hit my potential SRZ Shakeout Reversal Zone for the overshoot ratios of two 3 pivot Fibonacci extensions (yellow and white trendlines).

This time i've just drawn a blue band without the fibs for a clean chart, but these show the 2 doundaries of the overshoot ratios.

LI has topped a few times in this area and so there will be heavy resistance from sellers and shorts here.

In addition there are 5 BIG gaps in this uptrend and it looks very unstable.

I am staggering into a short here and will hold till the gaps fill.

I will add more if/when i see a bearish candle with upper wick.

Not advice.

2022年6月21日

註釋

Almost engulfing candle on 15 falls back into SRZ, could be some topping shenanigans but mometum is starting to shift and i am adding to my short here and will add again at resistance or on a higher time frame bearish candle

2022年6月22日

註釋

"Chinese EV Maker Li Auto Launches Flagship SUV; Shares Accelerate 7%
Jun 22, 202207:27
Li Auto (2015) unveiled its flagship smart SUV model Li L9 during a virtual launch event yesterday."

Great time for a top so Mr composite can distribute to incoming retailers.

2022年6月22日

註釋

Looking bearish

2022年6月22日

註釋

Looks like a BC Buying Climax into sudden shakeout UT UpThrust

2022年6月23日

註釋

In what is probably a BIG blow off top LI has blasted through my overshoot band and has printed another HUGE gap. I think it is now extremely overextended. I have added to my short. I dont think this can go on much longer with so many gaps.

2022年6月23日

註釋

Also passed long term resistance. May add more on a SRP.

2022年6月24日

註釋

Looking at the chart again it seems my blue band was incorrect and now I think this will be a 1.618 3 pivot extension. Overshoot typical up to 1.786 and more extreme 1.889.

2022年6月24日

註釋

Thats 4 gaps in 5 days now - very wild.

2022年6月24日

註釋

Also the RSI is up at 84 on the daily chart - very close to equalling the highest. I'm adding a little but not much on each gap.

2022年6月24日

註釋

Some bearish momentum coming in here. Sometimes it does appear that overextended stocks become a leading indicator to a index reversal and so we'll see if thats the case here.

2022年6月24日

註釋

If LI breaks 1H 20 MA I say its topped.

2022年6月27日

註釋

LI just needs to fill this gap and it will topple i think.

2022年6月28日

註釋

With indexes falling today LI is getting mashed down 7% and in the end the topping ratio was a fairly obvious (although I didnt see it at first) 2.272

2022年7月1日

註釋

2W candle coming to a close under resistance with huge upper wick

2022年7月5日

註釋

LI has been taking its time and in that time NDX is starting to show signs of reversal so although I think LI will have a big fall I'm looking to buy stocks not short stocks now. I dont want to be short with bullish NDX and so I will look for a graceful exit on this one. Its in a contracting pattern so I think I can exit around long term resistance that may even become support, though I guess the crash regardless of NDX.

2022年7月6日

註釋

I have exited at resistance today. As I said it will probably fall but I dont want to be in any shorts right now when I think NDX is about to pop.