Previously I had complained about the 8$ spike making normal analysis difficult based on it being an outlier that distorts our outlook. Based on statistics, I have a healthy respect for the law of averages which is why regression analysis appeals to me. Using a regression line back to the years low at 1.056, we find that it happened 205 days ago, using this for the regression analysis lines up quite nicely with the post spike movements from 5.23 down to 3.12, with our price trending in the blue positive channel since.
From here then, we can use the yearly low and new price points to establish pitchforks
to give us an idea of our current channel. Using an ordinary channel suggests that the current trend has support around 3.6 with my previous idea suggesting 3.4 as a support area
. So that seems like a decent target for a buy assuming we don't go full bear and break downwards. The normal pitchfork
suggests 8USD by 2016...let's see how that goes.
Finally, I've plotted a Shiff pitchfork
at the bottom for a more conservative outlook. Support for this trend is 3.21 at the bottom.