Will Litecoin Prove A Bear Market Rally? (LTC)
This is a fairly simple post. Above, you can see that every time Litecoin has broken below the middle orange trendline, it has continued towards the lower trendline. If this continues to be the case, it is like the bottom is not in for the cryptocurrency market. The weekly oscillator (red at bottom) looks incredibly weak. Perhaps on a positive note, LTC might close this week above the 9 EMA (orange). This is a departure from most weak price action seen in 2018. Circled in yellow are periods that look similar, where price continued to the downside. Litecoin will need to make a new local high to head towards the main downtrend. Breaking and holding that middle trendline would also be a bullish sign. For now, this looks like a bear market rally.
One of the biggest catalysts for legacy proof of work coins like Bitcoin and Litecoin is the halving. Litecoin's halving occurs before Bitcoin, in the summer of 2023. In 2019, Litecoin's upcoming halving led to a large price increase for LTC from the $22 bear market bottom to around $140 - nearly a 7x increase. During that time, I managed to scoop some up at $32 and sell above $130 for fiat and ETH. Since 2019, LTC has not seen such high levels against Bitcoin and Ethereum again. Against Bitcoin, Litecoin is again butting up against an established downtrend.
The blue shows the halving, while the yellow shows where I speculated a new LTC/BTC bullish cycle could begin. It did move up a little bit last summer, but not nearly as much I was hoping.
I thought I could profit off another Litecoin cycle, but it continues to underperform. I speculated on a new ATH for Litecoin multiple times this past cycle, but this failed to play out. This goes to show that none of us really know anything at all. But, it's fun to write and speculate about the market, using the information available to us. Despite underperformance, LTC is part of my remaining crypto portfolio.
Another observation: LTC is just barely hanging on to the long term uptrend on Bitfinex.
A break below that trendline could signal the end of the long term uptrend for Litecoin. As one of the most liquid cryptocurrencies out there with a strong value proposition, what does this mean for Bitcoin? Sometimes Litecoin's price action can offer clues to what's going on with the rest of the market. Let's see what unfolds. We're at a uniquely strange moment in global markets. Things continue to remain quite surreal. Be careful out there! There are things more important than markets. I'm really just telling myself that.
This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice. Clearly, because I've been wrong on this one multiple times.
-Victor Cobra
One of the biggest catalysts for legacy proof of work coins like Bitcoin and Litecoin is the halving. Litecoin's halving occurs before Bitcoin, in the summer of 2023. In 2019, Litecoin's upcoming halving led to a large price increase for LTC from the $22 bear market bottom to around $140 - nearly a 7x increase. During that time, I managed to scoop some up at $32 and sell above $130 for fiat and ETH. Since 2019, LTC has not seen such high levels against Bitcoin and Ethereum again. Against Bitcoin, Litecoin is again butting up against an established downtrend.
The blue shows the halving, while the yellow shows where I speculated a new LTC/BTC bullish cycle could begin. It did move up a little bit last summer, but not nearly as much I was hoping.
I thought I could profit off another Litecoin cycle, but it continues to underperform. I speculated on a new ATH for Litecoin multiple times this past cycle, but this failed to play out. This goes to show that none of us really know anything at all. But, it's fun to write and speculate about the market, using the information available to us. Despite underperformance, LTC is part of my remaining crypto portfolio.
Another observation: LTC is just barely hanging on to the long term uptrend on Bitfinex.
A break below that trendline could signal the end of the long term uptrend for Litecoin. As one of the most liquid cryptocurrencies out there with a strong value proposition, what does this mean for Bitcoin? Sometimes Litecoin's price action can offer clues to what's going on with the rest of the market. Let's see what unfolds. We're at a uniquely strange moment in global markets. Things continue to remain quite surreal. Be careful out there! There are things more important than markets. I'm really just telling myself that.
This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice. Clearly, because I've been wrong on this one multiple times.
-Victor Cobra
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