Litecoin (LTC), imminent collapse to $30?

2023年11月27日

And possibly below $10 after that?

Most if not all Alt-tokens have returned to their 2017 lows with 95% to 98% corrections since 2021. Pick any token popular at that time:

1) DASH.. 95% correction with a return to $25 in 2023 as it was in 2017. Inflation adjusted, the price should be $19! A bucket of expired sardines in a Norwegian Fish-market has gained more value.

2) XLM -90%
3) HBAR -95%
4) ADA -95%
5) NEO -95%
6) ETH -75% (massively bearish still!)
7) SOL -96%

It is everywhere you look, 95% corrections are all over.

Currently Litecoin is at an 85% correction. 95% takes price action to $15. Inflation adjusted, less than $10.

The technical analysis also supports the outlook. On the above 10 day chart:

a) A significant trend-line support has broken (orange line). Over the last 10 years Litecoin has enjoyed a continuous uptrend. The support has now failed AND confirmed. Yes price action could rally to $130-140, the bulls would get excited. Regardless, breaking this confirmed resistance will not be easy.

b) The 2nd bear flag breakout. It has confirmed. A 70% correction from the exit point measures to $28.

c) If support at $28 does not confirm, the next support is just under $10, the full 95% correction like everything else.

Is it possible price action continues sideways? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww

2023年12月14日

註釋

The market is pumping and LTC is.. poke poke.. do something. Why not price go up?

Special Agent Litecoin: When convention and science offer us no answers, might we not finally turn to the fantastic as a plausibility?

Special Agent reality: What I find fantastic is any notion that there are answers beyond the realm of science. The answers are there. You just have to know where to look.

Don't worry, there is a good chance some up will print in the next few weeks. However do give your attention to the main argument of the idea, nothing has changed.

2-month LTC-BTC pair

2023年12月18日

交易進行

The first 2-week Gravestone DOJI candle to print in history of Litecoin price action. Unless you can see another? I'm not sure I do.

1) The candle confirms with a following red candle on the 2-week. Therefore watch what prints next until the year end, it is the life or death of this idea.
2) The candle prints in a rising wedge formation. Bearish.
3) The candle prints as bear flag resistance is tested. Bearish with bearish bits.

Such candles printing on this time frame should not be shrugged off. They are significant warnings of a trend shift in the market. And no, this will not impact the entire market as many allude in the comments below. Comments from the Litecoin faithful are amusing though, keep them coming. I like chuckle.

"You must be BRAND NEW to crypto and fairly new to TA. But your enthusiasm is respected, even though you have no idea what you are doing."


2-week

2023年12月23日

交易進行

Final warning....

A 2-week Death Cross has confirmed. You can even see the 2-week Gravestone DOJI candle that has printed as resistance under the 2-week/50-day SMA.

I can see from comments below the faithful will never accept this. Never forget the terms and conditions when you're married to a project, until death do you part!

2-week chart

2023年12月26日

註釋

As the end of the year approaches I like to drift through the 2-month charts as I'm watching Die Hard for the umpteenth time whilst nursing a wee dram.
Latterly there is countless messages on this idea "Stop spreading FUD!". Too many messages to count, can't be bothered reading. Safe to say folks are taking umbrage with the forecast.

A 2 month bearish engulfing has now printed. Look left. Look how well the BE3 mimics BE2. There is little else to say, emotions aside, the chart is very clear.

Be Long when price action touches $5 ;-)

2-month bearish engulfing

2024年1月4日

交易進行

And so it begins. Wicked to $57 today. Where wicks go bodies surely follow.

2024年1月23日

註釋

Price action absolutely must close above $80 dollars before the end of the month, 8 days from now. It shall be a confirmed break of market structure on the monthly chart should it fail to do so
After that there is no support until $30. And that is not guaranteed to hold. $5 after that!

2024年1月31日

註釋

Hours remaining before January comes to a close, can price action close above $80 before it is too late?
If you're a bull you really do not want the red candle that is currently printing on the monthly close.

2024年2月22日

註釋

Is Litecoin about to wake up and join the party?

Nah... back to sleep.

In the last update A bearish engulfing candle for January printed. There is 7 day in February for that damage to be undone.

At this moment in time the confirmation appears fairly strong. Price should correct below $20 on confirmation.

Monthly

2024年2月29日

註釋

To void this idea price action must close a 2-week candle above $130.

Price action has now confirmed the first 2-week death cross in the history of LTC price action. Avoid listening to the moon boys in the comments.

2-week

2024年3月4日

註釋

After 1029 days price action breaks through resistance. A status many alt tokens achieved over a year ago. What happens next is unlikely to be surprising. As with other alt tokens the resistance breakout was followed by a support test several months later. It is likely price actions slides down this past resistance until the $30 target area.


weekly

2024年3月12日

註釋

Not changed this flag since it was drawn above... interesting to see price action test past support as resistance.

If you remain a bull, you need to see a weekly close inside the flag, not under.

1-week

2024年3月15日

註釋

Remember what was said above... you cannot see a weekly candle close under this flag and remain bullish.

2024年3月18日

註釋

Do you know what candle this is printing on the 10 day chart?
The print confirms on Thursday, March 21st.
Look left, it is not the first time a candle like this has printed.

10-day


Now if we zoom out and see where this candle is printing...

10-day


And remember $30 is the first support, it does not mean it will confirm.

2024年3月19日

註釋

Bulls, you need price action to jump up and over 115 in the next 72hrs to stop that hammer candle from printing. Do give it your attention.

2024年3月24日

手動結束交易

Yeah, well done Litecoin bulls, you averted the 10-day hammer candle from printing. A run to $150 (the next resistance) can now be expected.

Unbelievable as it sounds this idea is not voided with a run to 150, but it does not make sense to keep it active during the up-tick.

2024年4月12日

交易進行

Weekly candle confirms bear flag resistance.

It is unclear to me how the forecast is avoided without price action entering the flag and that's not happening whilst Grayscale are selling.

Weekly

2024年5月14日

註釋

Last week a new 3 week candle printed. It confirmed the previous 3 week resistance candle.

Don't shoot the messenger, I just work here...

3 week

2024年5月14日

交易進行

2024年5月16日

註釋

As the market rips higher, Litecoin holders celebrate a move from 80 to 82 dollars.

2024年5月24日

註釋

Weekly GRM support confirmed. That is a bullish signal. Come on Litecoin bulls, you can do it.

In order to void the idea as it stands, price action above and holding 130 dollars on the weekly is required to print. A strong rejection from the 120 area confirms the idea.

2024年6月3日

註釋

With a new month new data prints. The downtrend in price action confirmed with the monthly Gaussian channel changing to red for the very first time.

Focus on the blue arrows. Regardless of stock, crypto, whatever asset you study a confirmation of support or resistance on the mid line Gaussian channel shall with high probability result in a strong move to test the upper or lower side of the channel.

As such, price action has confirmed resistance from the mid-line. The lower lower channel rests on $30 at this time. However just like the upper side tests with continuation there is no guarantee price action stops its descent after breaking $30.

There’s been so many strong and clear indications of a strong reversal throughout this ideas and yet the resistance to it is as equally strong. Emotions are a money killer.

2024年6月7日

註釋

Was that the end of the bull run for LTC?

2024年6月11日

註釋

This next move to $60 might tickle...

2024年6月24日

交易進行

Litecoin bulls, you cannot allow this weekly candle to print outside the flag. Watch it closely.


weekly

2024年7月5日

註釋

July 29th. The only date Litecoin bulls can have in there calendar now. On this day, does a candle body print below past support on the 2 week symmetrical triangle?

If that happens a new target is made for $8 to $10

2 week

2024年7月15日

註釋

The July 29th date still stands. A few messages asking if the idea remains valid.

On the 3 week chart a candle body broke through support. A candle body cannot print under support and bulls remain bullish, 100% emotion.

2024年8月2日

註釋

Only $34 to go.
Do you ever notice when the market rallies up, Litecoin does not.
But when the market does into reverse, Litecoin holders sell sell sell.

2024年8月5日

交易進行

$24 to go

2024年8月5日

註釋

$20 to go ;-)

This idea should have been that canary in the coal mine for the wider market.
When the target is struck it would stand to reason many alt token position would be offering a good opportunity.

2024年8月5日

註釋

**Target update**, now $25

Perfect bear flag exit on the 2 week with reliable forecast.

2024年10月3日

交易進行

The rising wedge confirmation takes price action to $50 area. Onwards and downwards.

2024年11月5日

註釋

In response to a message as the market prints double digit greens.. "Is your LTC idea now invalid?"

Sorry, no. The 2 day chart below continues to be bearish.

2024年11月23日

註釋

A few messages asking if this idea is void now.
No.
Price action needs to move past $120 with volume. Lots of it.

As price action returns to where it was in November 2017 (solid investment right there, Bitcoin was $8k at that time) you will see on looking left a strong macro resistance is visible around the $120 area as shown on the 2 week chart below.

If a 2 week candle closes above this level with a following green confirmation candle, the resistance can be consider broken. If on the other hand a bearish engulfing candle closes at the resistance..

2024年11月24日

註釋

Price action touched the resistance ever so slightly as shown above, and what happened? High negative divergence on the daily.

Look left you silly little bulls...

2024年12月2日

註釋

Jubilant LTC bulls flood the inbox as price action returns to where it was in November 2017.
Inflation adjusted, $84... semantics.

At this time price action has rallied to market structure and nothing more. It is the same flag that was originally drawn on this idea.

A few messages ago it was written "Price action needs to move past $120 with volume. Lots of it."

That means volume needs to be seen over the course of the next 10 days.
Keep watching!

2024年12月9日

註釋

A word of warning to the bulls... price action cannot close under the blue area by month end.
It would be a confirmation of resistance on legacy support.

2024年12月18日

註釋

How's that for a sell signal by the by?

Remember what was said in the last update? Price action cannot print below the blue area, it would cause a perfect monthly Gravestone DOJI print.

On the 6 day chart below price action prints a textbook Gravestone DOJI print. It forecast a 40% correction, that would take price action under $80 with ease. This cannot happen and continue to be bullish.


6 day Hanging Man confirmed

1月7日

註釋

Litecoin bulls running for the exit...

1月27日

註釋

2 weeks ago bull were running for the exit. They responded with "ETF is coming!"

2 weeks later, would the last one out switch off the light?

Jests aside, the monthly chart cannot closed under 100-110 area and remain bullish.

2月3日

註釋

For months we've been tracking the breakdown of the legacy market structure.

The end of January say a massive rejection from 130 area with a wick printing at 80 dollars. Where wicks go price action often follows.

On the above 3 week chart a strong bearish divergence prints right no the broken market structure.

Please ignore the endless bullish comments, there is no support until $30 and then $15.

2月26日

註釋

Good news LTC holders of the last 7 years, your wait for a pump is almost over...

LTC.btc pair prints a strong signal on the 6 week chart with hammer candle.

This move will be similar to the XRP print of recent months in euphoria and topping pattern, will be over as quick as it begun. Once it collapses from resistance (will say elsewhere) the target area of this idea is maintained.

3月10日

註釋

Was a beautiful rejection from legacy support on the 15 day chart. The past towards $10 price action is but for all to see. Notice the 15 day Stochastic RSI rotation down 80? (red circles)... Look left, I know this time is different.. the ETF will save all.. Sellers have a choice.. sell today at $90 or sell down the road at $10,


15 day

3月19日

註釋

Price action has twice rejected legacy support on monthly, 2 monthly and 3 month charts.

Its a long way down...

3月31日

註釋

Monthly candle close for March confirm legacy support is now resistance.

Still think Litecoin is going to see a bull market?

4月6日

註釋

$40 to go until target! probably a long signal - ha ha ;-)

4月20日

註釋

10 days until the 2 month bearish engulfing candle print.

How to kill a crypto? Give it an ETF...