So for those of you that follow LTC, you'll realize we experienced a pretty big dip yesterday, approximately at 6:00 PM EST. Some would say that it was unexpected- was it really, though? Let's look at the signs.
1) We approached a major resistance of 260, but we stopped and tested the .786 level at 252. We didn't seem to hold it too long before taking a dive back to the low 240s. Obviously, there was an attempted retest, but a look at the 1H candles would show that it ultimately wasn't positioned to rally back up.
2) I've been keeping an eye on the volume/stoch for the past few days now, and I've begun to notice we approached overbought territory. Now, although I noticed it before we had our rally up to 252, I still had come to recognize that we were due for a dip. With Litepay so close by, I've decided to hold my position anyways, at least until I have further confirmations of a stronger downtrend.
3) TA is all about perspectives, and I think of it almost as an art form of sorts. You can look at it from many view points and angles, and the way you perceive it may very well be different than someone else's view. None of us ever will have a definitive answer, but it's nice when people offer that perspective. Anyhow, if you take a moment to step back and look at the broader picture (namely from our rally up since late November), you'll notice that we are ITCHING for a dip down even further still. Could we hang around the 200s and see a hard bounce back up? Yes, of course. However, really take a look at the graph in regards to gravity. Seeing that rally up from 160 to 235 has made me uncomfortable this whole time, and I've been counting the days until we see a huge dump back down. The big picture plays out two scenarios right now- either we just re-established a new high with 252 for the time being, and we're gearing up to see our dip down to the 80s that everyone so anxiously wants, or we'll test down to 176 and bounce back up. Seeing as we've had some healthy consolidation the past couple weeks, I think the latter is more likely to play out, but time will only tell. For now, I'm holding out, where I may be shorting my position if we break to 199, holding out for a dip to 176. Otherwise, I'm waiting for Monday, as I think Litepay is going to cause quite a buzz.
1) We approached a major resistance of 260, but we stopped and tested the .786 level at 252. We didn't seem to hold it too long before taking a dive back to the low 240s. Obviously, there was an attempted retest, but a look at the 1H candles would show that it ultimately wasn't positioned to rally back up.
2) I've been keeping an eye on the volume/stoch for the past few days now, and I've begun to notice we approached overbought territory. Now, although I noticed it before we had our rally up to 252, I still had come to recognize that we were due for a dip. With Litepay so close by, I've decided to hold my position anyways, at least until I have further confirmations of a stronger downtrend.
3) TA is all about perspectives, and I think of it almost as an art form of sorts. You can look at it from many view points and angles, and the way you perceive it may very well be different than someone else's view. None of us ever will have a definitive answer, but it's nice when people offer that perspective. Anyhow, if you take a moment to step back and look at the broader picture (namely from our rally up since late November), you'll notice that we are ITCHING for a dip down even further still. Could we hang around the 200s and see a hard bounce back up? Yes, of course. However, really take a look at the graph in regards to gravity. Seeing that rally up from 160 to 235 has made me uncomfortable this whole time, and I've been counting the days until we see a huge dump back down. The big picture plays out two scenarios right now- either we just re-established a new high with 252 for the time being, and we're gearing up to see our dip down to the 80s that everyone so anxiously wants, or we'll test down to 176 and bounce back up. Seeing as we've had some healthy consolidation the past couple weeks, I think the latter is more likely to play out, but time will only tell. For now, I'm holding out, where I may be shorting my position if we break to 199, holding out for a dip to 176. Otherwise, I'm waiting for Monday, as I think Litepay is going to cause quite a buzz.
評論:
If we close below 211 today, I'm suggesting a sell, and setting a buy for 163.